Looks like a two-man race in New York 23

By: MICHAEL BARONE

Senior Political Analyst

10/29/09 5:52 PM EDT

The special election in the 23rd congressional district of New York increasingly looks like a two-man race, with the woman candidate, Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava, skittering into third place. Yesterday I referenced Mark Blumenthal’s analysis of two polls, both commissioned by supporters of Conservative nominee Doug Hoffman, showing Hoffman ahead of Democratic nominee Bill Owens, with Scozzafava well behind. I agreed with Blumenthal’s conclusion that there was nothing indicating the polls were bogus, though polls in any special election, especially one with three candidates, need to be viewed with caution.

Now comes a third poll which tends to confirm those two, and this one was commissioned not by Hoffman supporters but by the pro-Democratic website Daily Kos; moreover, Kos himself endorsed Scozzafava. This one shows Owens leading Hoffman, but by the statistically insignificant margin of 33%-32%, with only 21% for Scozzafava. Averaging the three polls together, we get Hoffman 33%, Owens 30% and Scozzafava 18%. It sure looks like a two-man race to me. Maybe Scozzafava’s husband shouldn’t have called the cops on the Weekly Standard’s John McCormack when he asked the Republican nominee some civil questions.

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