NOVEMBER 3, 2009

Republicans Are Poised for Gains in Key Elections

Outcomes in New York, New Jersey and Virginia Are Unlikely to Forecast Much About National Races in 2010, History Shows

By NAFTALI BENDAVID and ANTON TROIANOVSKI

WASHINGTON — Republicans appear positioned for strong results in three hard-fought elections Tuesday. But isolated, off-year contests aren’t always reliable indicators of what will happen in the wider federal and state races held in even-numbered years.

Democrats and Republicans are jostling to glean messages from voters in a race for a U.S. House seat in far northern New York, as well as from contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans, increasingly optimistic, say the contests foreshadow trouble for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party’s ambitious agenda heading toward the 2010 congressional elections.

“We will be looking very closely at the results in these three races and reminding Democrats of the message they send about the agenda that they are forcing on American taxpayers,” said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which coordinates GOP House races.

A Republican sweep in Tuesday’s key contests would at minimum show that Democrats face much tougher political terrain than they did a year ago. GOP victories would also help the party’s fundraising and candidate recruitment for 2010, providing backing for arguments that Republicans have the momentum, and that voters are turning against the Obama agenda.

But it can be difficult to draw broader conclusions from off-year contests, which often turn on local issues.

Going back to 1989, one party swept the off-year gubernatorial elections five times. Three of those times, that party also won the following year’s congressional elections; twice it did not.

In 1993, Republicans Christie Todd Whitman in New Jersey and George Allen in Virginia captured their states’ governor’s mansions. The following year brought the dramatic Republican takeover of Congress.

via Republicans Are Poised for Gains in Key Elections – WSJ.com.