But is Gamal himself such a leader? Middle East analyst Barry Rubin tells Frontpage that “he has some good characteristics–pragmatism and moderation–but his age, lack of military experience, and limited charisma are against him.”
And what could happen if Gamal failed? “If Gamal did not rule well and consolidate his support,” Rubin continues, ” there could be some kind of coup against him. In addition, the Brotherhood could gradually grow in power to fill the vacuum and exploit the discontent. The Brotherhood cannot take over for some years to come. The danger is a longer-term one.”
Indeed, but the Brotherhood is working hard now in the short-term. Recently it came out strongly for the presidential candidacy of Mohamed ElBaradei, the former Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Brotherhood leaders may be banking on being able to exploit the popular discontent with the Mubarak regime that is unwilling to take up the cause of the Brotherhood itself, and to holding real power in a weak ElBaradei presidency. ElBaradei is widely regarded as ineffectual. Dr. Michael Widlanski of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs saw his abject failure to stop Iran’s nuclear program as an indication of how effective he would be as president of Egypt: “If he’s soft on a nuclear Iran, how much help will he be against the Muslim Brotherhood or Hamas or Hezbollah?”
But the Brotherhood is not necessarily hoping for an ElBaradei presidency at all. Hossam Tamam, a political analyst and former editor at the Islamic supremacist website IslamOnline, offers an alternative scenario: that the Brotherhood is using its support for ElBaradei to win concessions from the Mubarak regime: “The Muslim Brotherhood wants to use ElBaradei as a card in its negotiations with the regime ahead of the upcoming elections. By supporting ElBaradei, the Muslim Brotherhood can put pressure on the regime and force it to reach a compromise with them, eventually granting them a certain quota of parliamentary seats.”
If the Brotherhood succeeds in imposing a strident Sharia regime in Egypt via a figurehead or weak ElBaradei presidency, the Camp David Accords, already much transgressed and ignored by Egyptian authorities, could be swept aside altogether. Egypt could follow Turkey’s path of a new belligerence toward Israel as it jockeys for power with the Saudis and the Turks among the major players of the Sunni Muslim world. If, on the other hand, it wins enough concessions from Gamal Mubarak and his ailing father to push forward its agenda with new energy, confidence, and power, an Egyptian Sharia state inveterately hostile to the United States and Israel is not necessarily forestalled, but merely postponed.
Hosni Mubarak is the third in a row of Egyptian strongmen who have kept a lid on the Brotherhood’s power and preserved Egypt as a relatively secular republic for over fifty years. He could be the last. And the chaos that could follow in the wake of his death could spread far beyond the borders of what is still, at least putatively, the Arab Republic – not yet the Islamic Republic – of Egypt.
Islamists will take Egypt and that's for sure.
No president can really solve Egypts problems, which are to deph and complicated. Maybe if he could relay on the west (?) or any other strong foreign force, but there is no one at this moment. On the opposite, Islamist are gaining more and more international power.
Maybe if he'll act as the worse of the dictators, but even so the way to reconciliate the ppl will be religious in some way, probably anti west(?) and for sure anti Israelic.
Anyway, I bet Islamist will take Egypt.
It is absolutely in the interests of the United States and its allies, most importantly Israel, that the religious fundamentalists do not gain political control of Egypt. The country would be even more of a police state. Moreover, the Middle East likely would be thrown into total war.
Egypt, remember, is a nation with 80 million people — far more than Iraq and Afghanistan put together. It can afford heavy military losses. A radically Islamicized Egyptian society, with its youth aggressively mobilized (i.e., brainwashed), would effectively end any prospect for peace and possibly Israel's very existence.
Herein lies the main folly with regard to Bush's idealistic 'Democracy for the Muslim World' project: Regardless of how repugnant the current dictators of the Muslim world might be, given free and open elections, the winners would likely be equally corrupt, equally undemocratic, far more Islamic, and definitely more hostile to the West than the current regimes, as evidenced by election results in Iraq and Gaza.
Mubarak is a pretty bad guy, but their are even worse people in Egypt.
Actually, Mubarak is about the best you can expect in the Middle East without Islam completely taking over. At least he believes in building bridges to the West, while the alternative believes in forcing the West to submit to the authority of Islam.
Anyway, the future of Egypt will be very interesting to watch in the not too distant future, which is very scary considering how incompetent our State Department is.
Agreed. BTW, I once heard that Egypt is the single largest recipient of foreign aid. Anyone know if that is still true?
Egypt being a poor nation has made some headway with ties to the West, however
to keep the peace they have not cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood, which
is worrysome as this group is out to destroy everything that is not Islam. War is
most likley the outcome of Mubarak's death, Gamal may be moving behind the
scenes to put the fear of his military assassination squads on the minds of
militant leaders. Who knows, maybe a war will cleanse most of the Muslim Bros.,
fro the scene, Israel has enough to deal with as does America without Islam boiling
over in Egypt. American aid can not be a factor with Obama in Office and without the
threat of its loss, the Brotherhood may have a real edge…………………..William
Why was my comment deleted, there was nothing in it that was out of line with
normal comments???????????????? William
Also it was deleted almost instantaniously with my submital……………there was no
time for anyone to read it no less consider it as something needing deletion.
What gives…………
Whoever has the tongue of the imam in their pocket has the support of the people. A billion backward Muslims cannot understand the Koran and must depend on their Imam to make sense out of it. Mohammad can sound sweeter than Jesus with a bribed Imam decoding an impossible to understand Koran.
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