With Washington winding down one war in Iraq and ramping up another in Afghanistan, no one really expects U.S. forces to swing their sights on the country that sits in between these two crisis spots. Sure, there’s the obligatory talk of “all options being on the table,” but if the hawkish Bush administration couldn’t pull the trigger on Iran’s advancing nuclear program, it seems highly unlikely that the Obama administration, eager to pursue a less confrontational and more diplomatic approach in the region, will choose the military option. What’s most intruguing is the prospect that someone else could choose that option—or that something else could serve as a trigger.
Talk of a counter-proliferation strike gained traction earlier this month, when the UAE’s ambassador to the United States, Yousef al-Otaiba, endorsed the idea at a conference in Aspen, Colorado.
“We cannot live with a nuclear Iran,” he said, adding that in his “cost-benefit analysis” the UAE would be “willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the security of the UAE.”
But would the UAE be willing or able to offer more than political support? Probably not. Even so, the UAE looks to be bracing for the worst. For the first time ever, pilots from the UAE’s air force joined the U.S. Air Force and allied air forces at the Red Flag exercises in Nevada in 2009. And with an eye on Tehran, the UAE has purchased $17 billion in F-16s, Patriot missile batteries, and area-wide missile defenses.
The $17-billion spending binge is part of a $25-billion modernization program by several oil-rich Gulf states, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, for their part, are beefing up their fleet of F-15 bombers by buying new jets and upgrading the ones they already have.
Interestingly, Saudi Arabia provides a perfect segue to the most likely source of a counter-proliferation strike on Iran’s nuclear program. Open-source materials—from the Los Angeles Times to the London Sunday Times to the Jerusalem Post—are filled with reports that the Saudis are so concerned about an Iranian bomb that they have privately agreed to open an air corridor for Israeli warplanes. One report indicates that the Saudis have even tested how they would “stand down” their air defenses to make way for an Israeli strike force.
The Saudis, of course, have denied these reports, but it pays to recall that Israeli warplanes flew through Turkish airspace en route to nuclear targets in Syria in 2007, with Turkey’s tacit approval.
For its part, Israel seems to be taking the necessary steps to prepare for a counter-proliferation operation:
- The Israeli air force is conducting drills in Europe and the United States to hone its long-range capabilities.
- Israeli subs are now being rotated into the Persian Gulf to ensure a permanent presence of at least one missile-laden sub. By publicizing this, Israel is hoping to deter Tehran.
- In late 2004, Israel began buying hundreds of bunker-busting bombs from the U.S. To carry those bombs into battle, the Israeli air force has acquired additional F-15s and F-16s.
For its part, France recently opened air force and naval installations in Abu Dhabi, just across from Iran. French president Nicolas Sarkozy says the base “is a sign to all that France is participating in the stability of this region of the world.” It pays to recall that Sarkozy is the most hawkish of all Western leaders when it comes to Iran, warning that if peace-loving countries don’t close ranks, the consequence will be “an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran.” His foreign minister adds, “It is necessary to prepare for the worst. And the worst is war.”
Does BHO want to become the president whose legacy is that he let the Iranian nuclear genie out of the bottle?
Probably so, it'll make him look good "on the moslem street"
Yes. His intent is probably to ensure the destruction of the hated "Jew" ans at the same time bringing America down a couple of pegs. I believe he is a projection of Rev. Wright, Farrakhan and all other America hating people.
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That's another problem with U.S. President Obama. He has relinquished the U.S. leadership of the free world to other nations. One way or the other it is in the best interests of the Middle East that someone take out Iranian nuclear facilities before they have a bomb. If they have one they will quickly have more and every Middle East nation will be in peril, including the Arabic nations. And, the U.S. and Obama will be left in the dust. It will take years to gain the trust of the Arabic and Israeli people if Obama sits back and does nothing.
Want to? As someone who is either an apostate of Islam or a liar and most probably the latter as we have heard of no Muslim antiObama threats (and do look up the penalty for Islamic apostasy), why should he care about allowing Iran to rid the wold of what madrassa textbooks call, the sons of monkeys?
Surrounding himself with leftist antIsrael advisors and trying the pointless diplomatic method(aka tacit consent) why do you think that he wants any other result?
His clueless representative with her own leftist agenda is also blind to all but her political agenda and shows an astonishing lack of knowledge, or else doesn't care.
If the Iranians ever do explode a nuke on Israeli soil, the Obama's administration's response will be one of total surprise but then as their whole Israeli attitude has been one of inept arrogance and Islam coddling obsequiousness no one else will be.surprised.
If Obama is genuinely an American president (as opposed to a Muslim one) then the best scenario is that he hopes that Israel will do what he is too cowardly, inept or simply prejudiced to do & that is stop them where it hurts. But I can imagine the White House rhetoric when/if that occurs.
I hope Mr. Dowd is right but there is a serious question of will (not to mention competence) in all of this. To the Obama administration, eager to dismantle the whole of the US military, the Iranians are just a bunch of election-stealers, no different in principle than Mr. Obama himself. He will thus seek any excuse to avoid any military involvement as his primary goal is the transformation of America. And dithering which is very good at will not work in this instance. Just as we won't do anything to N. Korea because of fear of and subservience to China, isn't it altogether likely we will do nothing against Iran because of Russia? Thus leaving Israel alone at the crucial moment? Everyone knows that Iran itches to take both the little and the big Satan down, a prospect that our arab allies might find worth the risk of a nuclear Iran. In short, the calculus is fluid and subject to rapid change. Given this, I trust the Obama administration to make the worst possible decisions at the worst possible times, and a complete failure of will is not out of the question. Obama's excuse being that our military and missile defense (which he gutted) are not up to defending america. How grimly amusing. So good luck Israel — when the moment comes, you will be on your own.
The mad mullahs' nuke program won't end until the rule of the mad mullahs is ended. The mad mullahs are arming their hezz tentacle with missiles that can be modified to carry a nuke. The mad mullahs would certainly use their nuke umbrella and proxie armies to expand westward.
Three cheers for Sarko!!!
"The mad mullahs would certainly use their nuke umbrella and proxie armies to expand westward."
The mullahs may indeed be mad,but that does not remove the justification for a nuclear armed Iran as a balance to a nuclear armed Israel.While Iran has fought a war with Iraq,Israel has fought several wars with Arab neighbors.Muchiboy
Yes, but the difference is Iran has instigated wars in the middle east whereas Israel defended itself from attack.
"Yes, but the difference is Iran has instigated wars in the middle east whereas Israel defended itself from attack."
Your side of the story,MixMChess.My side sees Israel as occupier and oppressor.Muchiboy
"balance to a nuclear armed Israel" – what are you smoking?
Iran is an ideologically dominated (religious) regime intent on expansion and imperialism in addition to 'literally, genocide against jews and christians in the middle east and jews everywhere.
Israel is a responsible, peace-valuing democratic nation that wants to shrink its own borders for another muslim country ( this one for the palestinian arabs).
This is more nonsense from the left.
" what are you smoking? ….Israel is a responsible, peace-valuing democratic nation that wants to shrink its own borders for another muslim country ( this one for the palestinian arabs)"
Maybe we're smoking the same banje,eh,ajnn? Muchiboy
Your problem is either cultural relativism, or otherwise you are a Muslim.
Anyway, Israel’s nuclear weapons are for defensive purposes, as Israel is not the aggressor but the victim in the jihad that is being waged against it. While it’s true that Israel has fought several wars, each war, however, was fought in self-defense, as Israel has been the victim of several illegal wars of aggression since its creation, not to mention also the near perpetual campaign of terrorism that has been waged against Israel ever since the day Israel became a state.
Indeed, the Dar al Islam could completely unarm and never face a threat emanating from Israel. However, the minute Israel unarms or appears weak, the Dar al Islam always attacks Israel.
The truth is the Dar al Islam’s jihad against Israel, just like the stealth global jihad as well, is permanent. Hence, it couldn’t be any more obvious, Iran isn’t seeking nuclear weapons for defensive purposes, it is seeking them for offensive purposes and it fully intends to use them to attempt to destroy Israel and the USA too if it can get away with it.
" Israel is not the aggressor but the victim "
Hundreds of thousands of Palestinian victims will be pleasantly surprised to hear this,Yo.Muchiboy
Iran, as a sovereign nation, has an INALIENABLE sovereign right to develop and use nuclear technology. Iran says its nuclear program is only for non-military applications, such as in nuclear medicine and energy generation; there is no evidence to contradict that. But even if Iran were developing nuclear weapons, so what? Other countries have nuclear weapons, and the country that has, in the past, actually used nukes to bomb and kill hundreds of thousands of people is the country that is whining the most about Iran's nuclear program – shameful hypocrisy..
Oh Truthie, do tell. Except for the fact that Iran is led by die-hard Islamists that hold the 12th Iman's emergence as the sole reason for their very existence. They believe, and hold as the central component of the 12th Iman's return to kill all the non-believers and lead the world to the last and eternal Caliphate. The Koranic scripture and religious commentary call for a "conflagration" and "world war" to accomplish this. The purpose of nuclear weapons would not be used as a deterent, but to instigate the return of the Iman who would then lead Muslims to "purify and cleanse" the world of non-believers. Remember, in the analysis of an enemies intent, his beliefs, not yours should be the focus of your conclusions.
Huh – you mean that when Iran signs treaties (nuclear non-proliferation) it has "natural rights" that preclude the right to sign away nukes?
A novel idea. Grow up. This is a huge problem for the peace of the world.
Some years ago -Rafsanjani,the moderate, said,in a speech he gave, that Israel could and should be destroyed with a nuclear weapon..In a second speech he said it might take two.
The more radical Ahmadinijad asserted ,several times ,that Israel should cease to exist ,that it should be be wiped off the map.Don/t These statements sound like threats to you?.
Iran must be stopped at all cost because the global jihad is permanent and because Iran will leverage those nuclear weapons to run us out of the Middle East. Then once we have been driven out of the Middle East, it will only be a matter of time before nuclear weapons proliferate throughout the Islamic world.
According to Jihad Watch’s Hugh Fitzgerald, there has been approximately $13 trillion transferred to the Islamic world since the 1970s thanks to OPEC. It represents the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world, and it is this enormous wealth that has enabled the Dar al Islam to reawaken the sleeping giant that is Islam and that is also being used today to finance and fund the stealth global jihad.
Hence, because the stealth global jihad is permanent, not only must Iran be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons at all cost, but also the regimes responsible for financing and funding the stealth global jihad, primarily the House of Saud and the Emirs of the Gulf States along with their religious establishments, must all be eradicated and their oil wealth confiscated. Otherwise, we will be facing a permanent global jihad financed with their enormous oil wealth. Thus, if we want to remain free, we have no other choice.
Iran does not really fear any military action from the United States even if they go to war with Israel – because the Democrats and Obama won't back Israel when it requires a massive war effort.
USMC.. In spite of Husein's hatred for Israel, the USA as a guarantor of open sea lanes in the Persian golf we would be forced by NATO to keep them open, and this would require military action by our Navy. If he does it half-assed, then we will have a problem. We would be facing a magnified world wide terrorist threat with exponentially increased resources. Most of these terrorist cells are already deployed, including in our own back yard. Rome fell from within and we fail to learn a lesson from History. Our open borders bring to mind the last century in Rome when the Barbarians just kept settling in Italy.
Bibi must pull the trigger, and the US must support them.
Re: "Bibi must pull the trigger …"
If Bibi "pulls the trigger," do you think Iran will: (a) Wave the white flag of surrender and abandon their rightful nuclear program? Or (b) Launch retaliatory missile attacks on Israeli cities killing thousands of Israelis? (Hint: The ccorrect answer is (b))
Tit for Tat, buddy. Maybe we will be forced to destroy Iran. Remember Dresden? I'm all for it. Total war is Hell.
Question: what is the probability that any action against Iran will be effective?
I get the imopression that it is very low. Regime change may be the only realistic option.
"Regime change" should be the decision of Iranians; it should not be imposed by arrogant foreigners who think they know, better than the Iranians, what's's good for Iran.
Iranians for the most part don't know what is best for them. Most of them are still deluded despite the large scale demonstrations against the government last year. The fact is, most Iranians support the Mullah's in their quest to force the return of the Mahdi through a worldwide war. Unfortunately, Israel is going to have to do the West's dirty work and then suffer the inevitable worldwide condemnation and consequences that are surely to be imposed on it by the UN which has become nothing more than a tool of the Jihadists to impose it's will against Israel.
The Albanians love the US, so do the Kurds. The people of Iran were the only ones who held a candlelight vigil for the US on the night after 9-11. Given the chance, these Iranian people can change the world and set it on a course to freedom and democratic rule. Granted, it won't be a US style of government, but all peoples yearn for freedom and this is the goal the whole world needs to keep alive.
I don't buy this. Do the Kurds accept a bill of rights such as ours? Are their Women treated any different than in, say Turkey? Do they conduct honor killings and clitoral genital mutilation on their women? I'd say yes, so until they democratize and accept freedom as in California, then I'm sorry but they are not our friends. They may need us now, but they really are Muslims bent on expanding Islam and imposing Sharia Law on us.
You are wrong about clitorial mutilation in Kurd society. And anyway, we should not presume to force democracy on any society. We can only lead by example and by world opinion. Too bad that so called world opinin is against Israel, and not the real culprits of strife and brutality.
But any people that proclaims a peaceful co-existance with us, could be our friend.
Thank you for your interest. As you may be able to discern from my comment, I'm not at all interested in having Kurds, Turks, Iranian or any other Muslim country as a fair weather friend. I don't presume anything, furthermore I strongly believe Freedom and Liberty to be incompatible with Islam, no matter what brand, and I also believe world opinion is irrelevant if we "Speak softly and carry a big stick." We need to do away with foreign aid, emergency relief to foreign disasters, funding the U.N., and all other forms of international welfare, because "money can't buy you love." again, thank you for your time.
Will de M.E. be dominated by Iran ?
It is very much in the national interest of the United States and of the West—including any liberal interpretation of that interest—to oppose a region dominated by Iran and its allies, the overthrow of relatively moderate Arab regimes, the destruction of Israel, and a situation of increased violence and crisis that would result. For too long, legitimate concerns over the Iranian regime's atomic efforts have overshadowed serious discussions about human rights conditions within Iran. More at : http://israelagainstterror.blogspot.com/2010/07/h…