Since the second term of the Bush Administration, figures once opposed to Syria and Hezbollah have capitulated. Even the son of Rafiq Hariri, Saad, is meeting with Hezbollah officials and Bashar Assad, who he told that if Hezbollah is indicted, he’ll accuse an “external element” of infiltrating the group to carry out the killing of his father—an apparent reference to Israel.
The ambush happened as the U.N. prepared to indict three to five members of Hezbollah, to be followed by a second indictment of about 20 officials. The suspected mastermind is Mustafa Badr al-Din, a senior member of Hezbollah who is a cousin of Imad Mughniyeh, the former operational leader of Hezbollah who was killed in 2008. The evidence against Hezbollah is significant. The U.N. investigators tracked down eight phones used by those involved, which then led them to 20 more phones. All of the phones were connected to Hezbollah terrorists.
The phones were used by a Hezbollah member trained in Iran named Abd al-Majid Ghamlush who used one to call his girlfriend. He has since gone missing. The phones were also connected to Hajj Salim, a Hezbollah commander in South Beirut who now runs a “Special Operational Unit” alongside al-Din overseen by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. Both Salim and al-Din also report to the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The tribunal reportedly even identified the Hezbollah operative who received the truck used in the bombing.
When word came out that al-Din was about to be indicted, Saad Hariri asked the U.N. to delay the announcement. Bashar Assad warned that he’d stand by Hezbollah and that indicting them could “destroy” Lebanon. Following these warnings, the border clash happened. Hezbollah vowed to fight Israeli forces if fighting again erupted, and Nasrallah soon after held a press conference to make the case that Israel killed Rafiq Hariri by showing alleged surveillance footage from Israeli drones of his traveling routes. He also claimed that a Lebanese spy for Israel confirmed that he had cased the site the day prior to the attack.
Hezbollah and its supporters planned the violence as a way of distracting the world’s attention and possibly delaying the U.N. indictments. Hezbollah and its allies appear to believe that provoking a conflict with Israel can minimize the political blowback against them by casting themselves as the protector of the Lebanese. Israel should ready itself for the war that Hezbollah has been actively preparing for.
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