Don’t confuse the dramatic swell of the Republican tide that is becoming increasingly evident to the pundits of the country with party trend. Right before Election Day, the numbers will get even better and presage an even larger Republican victory.
Party trend usually indicates itself in the 10 days before an election when voters who do not typically follow politics closely tune in and decide for whom to vote. Until this window, they usually describe themselves to pollsters as “undecided.” There will be a huge Republican party trend this year, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The huge Republican poll numbers these days do not reflect the last-minute switches typical of less involved voters but rather mirror the disappointment with Barack Obama and with Congress among voters who do follow politics closely that has accumulated over the past year and a half. It is this reappraisal of their political opinions that is occasioning the big swing toward Republicans in the 2010 election.
The ranks of these disaffected voters who are now turning against Obama and the Democrats will soon be joined by the less-involved voters who will come around in the week or 10 days before the election.
From the perception of the pollster, party trend is a bit like a curveball thrown by a pitcher to a batter. The election statistics remain fairly static for weeks or even months with little change as the race unfolds through September and early through mid October. Like a fastball that comes in straight and true.
Then, suddenly, as the election nears, the vote swings wildly to one side or the other, akin to a curveball that breaks as it approaches the batter — usually too late for him to make an adjustment.
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I hope that Dick Morris is right, but I also think that overly "moderate" Republicans don't appeal to the electorate either. If you are going to be a big spender, just less so than the Democrats, then you are not going to inspire enthusiasm. You have to show that you do stand for an alternative.
Right now former Republican Senator Trent Lott is complaining that Senator Jim DeMint is funding overly partisan candidates that will repel an electorate that wants moderates.
But actually, its the moderate that seems like "business as usual", and the conservative that seems like he has principles and stands for something. I do agree that certain positions can scare the electorate, but many conservative positions will sound like they make sense, at this point.
Most of the Obama administration's initiatives have something in common, they trash the economy. For instance, now any left-wing group can force their candidates onto any company's ballots that are sent to shareholders (see "Alinsky Wins At The SEC" in today's Wall Street Journal). Vast amounts of time and energy and popularity will be required to roll back all these initiatives, starting with health care "reform". We need people who can offer real "hope and change".
That says a lot that the DemocRATS depend on the lack of education and stupidity of their voters. Those are the people who aren't intelligent enough to give informed consent but they are allowed to vote. If a man decides to have sex with an 8 year old girl the law says she has been raped because she cannot give informed consent. We give these idiot people the right to vote for the leader of our country when, if you've talked to any of them lately, you can plainly see that they don't have a clue what is going on. They are like children going to Disneyland. They have that silly smile and that far away look in their eyes as though they're entering into some supernatural world where everyone will have medical care for free, and they will never have to worry about paying the rent again, new cars for everyone, etc. Mankind will become incapable of a hurtful thought and we're all just going to help each other and anyone who wants to go to college can go, and and and it's going to be so great! Lalalalalalala
I hope he's right, but he's been wrong before i.e. he predicted & prepared us for a Dem presidential ticket with Hilary on the top…
I remember that. Somehow Dick wasn't able to factor in the stealing of the nomination by the very progressive left who somehow thought an affirmative action candidate was better than an ex-first lady with the Clinton baggage. I can't figure out how he missed all that. But remember how she was winning in those later primaries and neither candidate had the required delegates going into the elections.
At the time, the 'Clinton Machine' was very much in control – I long for those days, LOL
I still think we will end up with Hilary on top. If the novelty of having a glib, young, black President does wear off on voters by 2012, she is on deck, ready to satisfy the trendies that put Obama over the top,
By the time 2012 comes around, the Clinton name will have been around for over 20 years. People are going to be sick and tired of it. Hillary had her chance in 08, it was then or never. I don't believe she'll run in '12, and will be even older in '16, with people that much more sick and tired of the old dinosaur.
I tend to agree with Nico – Clinton is done, it didnt work the last time around and the voters will be even more tired of her if she tries again in '12. Doesn't look likely at all.
One thing is for sure, Obama keeps doing himself and his party damage on a daily basis. I'm sure that his sorry MessNBC interview, where he stated that he "ignored the Glenn Beck rally" will go over like a lead balloon with American people. A sea of people who flooded his back yard is only indicative of the tens of millions who think the same way. Obama seems to forget that he's president of all Americans, not just his little fawning posse. This kind of callousness and arrogance will undoubtedly cost him and his party greatly. For all the talk about him being such an intellectual tower, he does and says the stupidest things, resulting in self-implosion. No wonder demonrats are running from him. Personally, I think the guy is an unmitigated moron, who doesn't possess a sinlge idea of his own, who has delegated the job of governing to (mostly) Pelosi, because he has no clue how to do it, nor does he want to be bothered with it. The result will be a watershed in November.
And meanwhile, liberals throughout America are saying, "La, la, la, I don't hear you!"
Dick Morris' record isn't all that good. He said that Hillary wouldn't run for the New York Senate, then he said that if she ran she would lose.
Having been dumped by the Democrats after the toe sucking episode he has dreamed of revenge ever since. The reason that "revenge is a dish best served cold" is that hot-blooded avengers tend to make stupid mistakes. Morris' blood is still boiling and he's allowing his desires to overwhelm his judgment.
The Republican battle cry of "We're not with Obama" isn't enough. They need an actual program and the lack of one will become more and more evident between now and November. Some Republicans are willing to put their ideas out there (Rand Paul, Paul Ryan and Jim DeMint) but few others are. Unfortunately, Ryan and DeMint have records of supporting big government programs pushed by Bush.
The next two months promise to be interesting but don't be surprised if the Republican lead starts to collapse. Without a solid, uncompromising, small government, less regulation and lower spending agenda, they will self destruct.
The best predictor of future behavior has always been past behavior. The past behavior of Republicans does not inspire confidence.
Morris is the keenest political insider commentator in the country. He's not always right, but a damn sight more frequent than anyone else. What we conservatives need to worry about is what to do when we gain power again. We may have inherited a fiscal nightmare that is beyond repair. That's what past the 'tipping point' means. There's nothing that makes me believe that it is politically possible to make the spending cuts that are necessary for either party.
I absolutely agree. He doesn't always pick the winning horse, but he knows the field like no other. His analysis is usually right on. But this one is almost too much to hope for.
Most of what I see has a 30% leftist voting block against a
70% varied voting block, as 30% of voters are anti-American and
while 70% of voters are pro-American it will come down hard
on Demonrats………….I hope and pray the vote results will be
overwhelming and a restoration will begin……………….William
And while the socialist-Democrats should be permanently set adrift in shark-infested waters in the not-too-distant future, perhaps there will be an increasing interest in the Libertarian party should the progressive Republicans not be steadfast in righting the listing ship of state.
Aww Sad…i thought he is a great leader
No he is not