At the same time, there are signs of disunity among the security forces. As Michael Ledeen reports, an Iranian drone was shot down near the Bushehr nuclear reactor by the country’s own Air Force because of a lack of communication. In late July, after the commander of the Revolutionary Guards publicly admitted to the existence of dissent in his force, 250 officers resigned. There are consistent acts of sabotage against the petroleum industry and there is now an unconfirmed report of a shootout between operatives of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security and the Revolutionary Guards.
Iran is also suffering from economic distress that is causing further tension over the government’s domestic policies. The country is facing a severe gasoline shortage because of rising consumption, a dependency on gasoline imports and the sanctions. In July, at a time when normally 11 to 13 gasoline cargoes would arrive, only four came. In August, gasoline deliveries were only half of the previous month and 90 percent less than at the same time last year. Workers are also sporadically going on strike as many go five months without pay and factories are forced to shut down.
The regime is reacting to the instability with increased oppression. There has been a steady pace of executions and the regime has completely banned news coverage of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi or Mohammad Khatami. Their names cannot even be mentioned. The Ministry of Education is sending mullahs to the schools to counter Western influence. Security forces are going to popular shopping areas and searching cars driven by youth as Iran. Young Iranians are reportedly being arrested for their attire and what they listen to on the radio. Several converts to Christianity have also been arrested for having Bible discussion groups and services in their homes.
Imani says that Ayatollah Khamenei is engaged in a desperate balancing act and is running out of options.
“The horrible and deteriorating Iranian economy is taking its toll on Ahmadinejad’s struggle to survive. Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric against the West and Israel has no longer any buyers in Iran. He is doomed either way. The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei has been trying to keep the balance between all the branches of Islamic government, however, the future of Iran seem very gloomy, no matter from what corner you look at it,” he told FrontPage.
The government cannot allow this internal battle to continue indefinitely. The regime will likely try to instigate a foreign crisis if Khamenei fails to convince the squabbling elements to reconcile. Such an opportunity may have presented itself in the announcement that direct peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority will continue. Hamas will be eager to torpedo the negotiations and Egypt has seized massive shipments of weapons including about 300 anti-aircraft missiles on their way to the Gaza Strip along with a large amount of other weapons. Unfortunately for Israel and the West, picking a fight may be the only card the regime has to play.
People have been predicting the imminent collapse of the Islamic Republic since its inception 30 years ago. I'm not holding my breath.
Nonetheless, it needs to be reiterated: Obama's utter indifference to the fate of the demonstrators in last year's brutal crackdown was a grotesque betrayal of our democratic values. Regardless of whether or not the regime would have been overthrown, our place was by the side of the democracy advocates. All we needed to do was express our moral support. Instead, Obama remained mum and then, when events had gotten far ahead of him and he was receiving such criticism for his indifference, he went on record with a bland and qualified statement of "support" for the demonstrators.
Disgraceful!
I agree totally.
"Moral support " ????? FOR WHO . Both factions favor Israel's destruction . Man , can't anyone discuss ANY issue without bl;aming Obama for it ……this is childish !!
Oh gee , religious fanatics disagreeing , even killing one another …..Gee YA THINK ?
Grow up people !
The students and others who were protesting were protesting AGAINST the rhetoric coming out of Tehran against the jewish state. The average Iranian is concerned about rising costs of living and saber rattling by their government that is isolating the country from the world community.
That being said, yes, Obama is at fault for not showing any support for the demonstrators. You are pulling the idea that the opposition favors Israel's destruction from where you pull all your other liberal ideas, out your a**. Stop whining that people blame your savior for things he deserves blame for and actually work on facts. Once you get the facts about issues, you will no longer be a liberal because you people have never seen truth or facts that you like. " Liberals, always wrong, never in doubt ".
I don't "pull anything " , I suggest you acquaint yourself with the REASONS for the students protesting , and the actual position of the leader they support . Obama is NOT my "savior , that's just part of your parroted rhetoric . Nor is he the devil , or a serial killer , he's simply the choice of the elerctorate , and that is the bone that's stuck in youir throat . It is people of your political pusuasion that are doiung all thje whining ……suck it up , you'll get your chance in the election booth just like everyone else .
BTW , you have absolutely no idea of my political standing , other than exposing the childishness of some opinions , and most are in fact opinion , devoid of actual fact .
The democracy demonstrators in Iran were not necessarily pure, but If you are suggesting that they were no different – in their ethics and their goals – from the regime that was brutalizing them, then might I suggest your moral relativism has blinded you in your capacity to see and think objectively.
Obama got nothing for his official indifference. Iran continues to enrich uranium and will get the bomb because Obama will not act. Conflicts between different groups of Mullahs & Ahmadinejad does not mean the regime is in danger. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, crushed the election protests. He will do the same again. If need be, he can remove Ahmadinejad. Only if there were sanctions of gasoline imports would there be a chance of civil unrest. Then, if the army will not fire upon the protesters, that would lead to the fall of the Mullahs, just as it did the Shah.
Obama cannot support the opposition, which many risked their life and freedom, but he does support a dictator-in-waiting in Central America who wants to do a Chavez like revision of the constitution to stay in power. The anointed one is on the wrong side of everything and always errs on the side of tyranny. Boy, we really have a gem in the white house.
That's right pal , and he simply replaced the other "gem ": in office for 8 years , and in 2012 we'll no doubt get another "gem ' you can complain about . Funny Bush screws up the economy , and all the parrots of his pursuasion blame Clinton , now Obama gets in and all the parrots of his pursuasion blame Bush , so suck it up pally , you'll get your chance soon enough .Then you'll hear the same from them liberals .
Come and get me coppers!!!!! You"ze better treat me right pally, or I'm gonna show you my violin….
glad you have a sense of humor ….but you know it's true .
When the petrol money taps are shut down non muslims will be unforgiving in the bite back to islam. This will happen. Too many non-muslims will take the law into their own hands and will do what needs to be done. Islam will be on the run but will be hunted down and expunged from the planet. For this to happen iran has to have nuclear weapons first. When everything is in place their reactors will be their deaths in the millions. but the real clean-up will start outside Iran. Europe and Russia will lead the west and India and Australia will do the floor-wipe and all small islands and china will do it too. Right now there are muslims gathering in south America. let them gather. south Americans are merciless. they might be drug lords but they know evil is amongst them and will expunge it. The planet is fed up of this evil islamic nonsense cult. hence Iran has to get nuclear weapons !!!