Libyan Rebels Sinking

Posted by Bio ↓ on Apr 5th, 2011 Comments ↓

The see-saw battle in Libya rages on, with the rebels asking for a truce and in a full-scale retreat from cities they recently re-captured. The weaknesses of the rebel forces mean that they will need significant, long-term outside assistance to survive unless the coalition decides to remove Qaddafi from power. The West now faces a catch-22: It can provide the rebels with what they need, knowing there are Islamist elements among them or the rebels will go to those willing to help them, which could include Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and other Islamists.

The rebel forces have just incurred a series of losses as they pushed too far in their advances following the U.N.-authorized intervention. This stretched their forces and allowed Qaddafi’s military to launch successful counter-attacks. The rebels have complained about a sudden lack of airstrikes, which Admiral Mike Mullen says is due to poor weather. However, the announcement that the U.S. combat role is ending and strikes will no longer be carried out by American forces except at NATO’s specific request will cast doubts among the rebels over whether the air cover they need will return. One Libyan woman close to the National Transitional Council in Benghazi said that “They see non-commitment, commitment, non-commitment” and as a result, “their morale is very low.”

Admiral Mullen said that 20 to 25 percent of Qaddafi’s forces have been destroyed but he still has about ten times the firepower of the rebels, who have only around 1,000 military-trained fighters. Mullen specifically said that Qaddafi’s military is “[not] about to break.” The rebels say they need heavy weaponry and a broadening of the targets for air strikes. They are having particular difficulty in handling snipers, who one said “have been wreaking havoc.”

The biggest issues are the lack of a command structure and trained forces among the rebels. One of the fighters was an assistant to a ship captain before the uprising began and never even held a weapon before the war began. He said the little knowledge he had about using an AK-47 came “from what I saw in the movies. And also from PlayStation.” The rebels cannot adequately train them because they are needed for the battlefield immediately. They also have almost no satellite communications equipment and therefore have to send instructions, intelligence and weapons through couriers. This leads to a lack of coordination and significantly delayed responses to developments.

The opposition says the rebels still have plenty of motivation and are quickly improving their performance, but it will take considerable time to train fighters who can lead the forces. The opposition denies wanting to institute Sharia law and U.S. intelligence believes that Al-Qaeda are only a small portion of the opposition, but this need for experienced commanders and fighters has led to an embrace of Islamists. A representative of Derna on the Transitional Council states “Many of us were concerned about these people’s backgrounds,” specifically mentioning Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, a rebel commander tied to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group who has promised to serve only under the authority of the local governing councils.

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About

Ryan Mauro is a fellow with RadicalIslam.org, the founder of WorldThreats.com and a frequent national security analyst for Fox News Channel. He can be contacted at ryanmauro1986@gmail.com.

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8 Responses for “Libyan Rebels Sinking”

  1. Chezwick_mac says:

    It's amateur hour coming home to roost.

  2. kk25i says:

    …. all of this and what for, the two terminals and access to where exactly.
    There would not be a freedom issue in this region had it not been for the oil so why not a whole new strategy one that does not include short term-ism and yet still calls on natural resources to satisfy this planets energy needs without a single radiation factory insight.
    Billions of years ago this planet inherited a nuclear power plant all of its own and then a species was developed that could live in close proximity to the radiation it produced along with the unending power it produced transmitted to us as heat, this power unit shut itself on and of and created its own workbed what we call desert today, the only thing we need now is someone smart enough to come along and tie it all together….Free Nuclear Power forever without even a heat rash let alone radiation poisoning….. Cannot be done you say, its already happening, the question is how much an acre for those desert waste lands before we start harvesting this free resource. Whats that you say! You have just dropped of the edge of the known world.. I thought so !!!
    Now do you get it,
    kk.

  3. cedarhill says:

    Pros at war do logistics. If one wins the logistics battle then one has a chance. Mostly the rebels are losing the logistics battle alongside the usual stupidity of imans, jihadists and rabble. Even with no-fly zones, like Iraq under Saddam, even a poor military crushes rabble.
    It all depends on the infighting of the Gaddafi's regime, not the rebel "freedom to create an Islamic state" fighters.

  4. huntingnasrallah says:

    We must ask ourselves what we see as a positive outcome in the Libya affair. It has become patently clear that Gaddafi and other dictators have held an entire generation behind an iron curtain. The average age of a Libyan is under 35, which means that most Libyans don't remember an age without Gaddafi. Moreover, the educational system has yielded a mix of engineers and Islamists. Jihadis have traveled the Greater Middle East in search of adventure, cashing in on multiple criminal networks and underground runner units for al Qaeda and Hezbollah. But, at the same time, the overwhelming majority of the country did not join a jihadi cause or an Islamist party. Libya is a well-off country in African terms, due to its oil wealth. The tribal system is more likely to produce salafi pirate strains than capital market entrepreneurs.

    But we must see through these realities and recognize that Gaddafi's regime had been working with hardliner extremists in every African strife ridden area to promote Islamism and Arabist groups. One of these groups (The Chard Republican Army) in addition to a plethora of mercenaries, are fighting alongside Gaddafi forces. While we quibble over how extensive the flickers of jihadism are in the rebel forces, we can be certain that the Gaddafi regime's association with Islamist elements is far more than a "flicker".

    In full, with Hillary Clinton and William Hague refusing to officially recognize and arm the rebel opposition forces, the likelihood of an extended stalemate is high. A stalemate has natural ramifications on the humanitarian front. A protracted stalemate, while yielding cracks in the armor of Gaddafi's inner circle, is an expensive proposition for rebels intent on making deals with their new found legitimacy.

    At present, the American and western media has not focused on what the educational facilities and programs of the Libyan people amounted to for those graduating from the gauntlet. And while the west pats itself on the back for remaining cautious in its support for the opposition, it automatically loses out on the influence necessary to salvage Libya's end game on behalf of Liberty.

    It is at this time, when the constitution of the country is in its formative phases as the young rebellion declares its independence from everything old and mean. The American and British leadership have a golden opportunity at this crucial juncture, of completely financing rebel victory in exchange for the establishment of a secular constitution based on the limits of man made law, rather than subject to the dictates of Allah's Koran.

    Now is the time for American leaders to step up and request the Free Libya Movement to meet Liberty half way.

    • ObamaYoMoma says:

      And while the west pats itself on the back for remaining cautious in its support for the opposition, it automatically loses out on the influence necessary to salvage Libya's end game on behalf of Liberty.

      The American and British leadership have a golden opportunity at this crucial juncture, of completely financing rebel victory in exchange for the establishment of a secular constitution based on the limits of man made law, rather than subject to the dictates of Allah's Koran.

      I see I need to sell you a bridge as well.

  5. sky says:

    patriotactionnetwork Will Gates issue military recognizance order

  6. fxgeorges says:

    lord Gadaffi turms around and lifts his hand in a claw,Suddenly the captain grabs his throats and suffocates.
    lord Gadaffi : you will now fail me again,Captain.

  7. One of the largest orders for Venetian blinds ever placed was to the Burlington Venetian Blind Co., of Burlington, Vt., which supplied blinds for the windows of the Empire State Building in New York City

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