The Iranian foreign minister announced on Thursday that the Russian-built reactor at Bushehr has reached critical mass and become operational. While there is a difference of opinion about the “immediate” threat from Bushehr, there is no denying that this is a symbolic victory for the Iranian nuclear program and a setback for the West in its efforts to halt the Iranian march toward a bomb.
The successful start up of Bushehr comes on the heels of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report issued recently that gives voice to suspicions that the Iranian nuclear program has a secret military track that may be geared to develop an atomic warhead to place on one of Iran’s medium or long range missiles. And the start up of the reactor has been achieved despite the very clever and effective cyber attack using the Stuxnet worm last year.
There has been a history of trouble with the Bushehr reactor, going all the way back to the 1990s when the Russians contracted with the Iranian government to complete construction on the project, first begun by a German consortium for the Shah in the 1970s. Financial difficulties, the technical incompetence of Iranian subcontractors, political roadblocks, and problems with the fuel rods all contributed to the rocky road for the reactor.
The question with regards to how much of a threat the reactor poses has always been based on the reliability of the current agreements between the Iranian and Russian governments. Once up and running at full power, the plant will produce between 100 and 300 kilograms of plutonium a year – a by-product of spent fuel rods. Since as little as 6 kgs of plutonium is needed to build a bomb, the temptation for the Iranians to cheat will be great.
Whether they could get away with it is the nub of the matter. The Iranians have agreed that Moscow will supply Bushehr’s fuel rods and remove the spent fuel for shipment back to Russia where it will be de-processed. It will be very difficult to divert plutonium elsewhere as long as the Russians don’t deliberately look the other way. Also, the IAEA will be inspecting the plant regularly for safety concerns — a regime that includes keeping track of the fuel cycle at the plant.
This is the logic behind Bushehr being no “immediate” threat. But there are also legitimate concerns about Iran’s intentions with regard to the plant, and even some suspicion about Russia’s motives in selling and reprocessing the fuel rods.
Iran has threatened to withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) several times. If they ever made good on those threats, activity at Bushehr would come under increased scrutiny. Within a few years, Iran will be technically capable of creating their own fuel rods, thus obviating the need for Moscow to supply them and consequently, removing the necessity for the Russians to remove them for reprocessing. With Iran in complete control of the nuclear fuel cycle, and no inspectors looking over their shoulder, the chance that the Iranians will take advantage of the situation is too great to ignore.
More and more alarmist rhetoric with each passing day and not a shred of extra solid evidence of any nuclear program.
Yeah, A nuclear powered Iran would be more powerful and have more say over access to the Gulf, and this obviously doesn't sit well with many nations that have poisoned any chance of reproachment with Iran by means of painting them as an innately evil civilization, undifferentiated from the likes of the Taliban and Al Quaeda(who they fought with for decades).
Habeus corpus, I want evidence beyond a reasonable doubt that an nuclear weapon is being manufactured and this isn't just the most reasonable alternative to the oil they can sell while also "sticking it" to opposing regimes abroad. From day one we have been putting our money on the wrong horses in the middle east.
*nuclear weapons program
A nuclear Iran, with a self-defense deterrent will be obtained. there is nothing the West can do and this is recognized even in the highest spheres of the American army. its not serious, iran is far more rational than Iraq and Israel
so, welcome in the nuclear club !
You can't be serious. Iran is "far more rational than Israel". You obviously are a Jew hater. Iran led by their truly insane leader has threatened to destroy Israel countless times for years. No nation which a nuclear arsenal has threatened Iran which make your statement about Iran requiring a "Self defense deterrent" as absurd as your other statement . Can you back up your absurd statements with any facts?
to feel threatened, does not need a declaration of threats from a nuclear power. the mere possession of an arsenal by Israel in the region is enough, for iran to feel itself threatened! israel is an unstable country and always in conflict with its neighbor.
To jaythehistorian: You obviously don't know what you are talking about. To criticize Israel is not the same as being a "Jew hater."
Secondly, the Iranian president is not insane, he has never threatened Israel (if you don't believe me do a Google search), and he has no power over the Iranian military.
Finally, Iran has no nuclear weapons program according to the US 2011 NIE and has no plans to acquire any. In contrast, Israel already has over 200 nuclear missiles and constantly threatens to attack Iran. Israel has already attacked Iran in the cyberspace with the Stuxnet virus. If Iran had done the same to Israel or the US it would be the end of the world.
There isn't one accurate statement in your post.
This nation is helping Iran to make this H-BOMB On orders from the head boy in washington.
Its just not North Korea or Russia this technoogy is from our boys in china and from our own business people here, just open your eyes evil is all over this world and coming for you.
Do you have any evidence for all this nonsense? Or, were you drunk when wrote this comment?
The concerns about Bushehr are much ado about nothing. There is a 10-year agreement for Russia to supply the fuel and take the spent rods back to Russia. It is utterly stupid to claim that Bushehr is any potential danger to anyone. Besides, does the author and those who write comments here know anything that the 2011 US National Intelligence Estimate which says that Iran has no nuclear weapons program? It does not even say that Iran is leaving its options to build nukes in the future. So, isn't there something else to talk about?
Wake up America and watch the DVD movie Iranium. Death to America and death to Israel is what this factual documentary is about. All Iran has to do is launch a nuke offshore from a cargo ship and if exploded above ground the electromagnetic field will fry all electronic equipment. In one year 9 out of 10 Amercians will be dead.
What a time to have Obozo as president.
You are paranoid. You should see a psychiatrist. The movie about Iranian nukes is total nonsense. Iran has no nuclear weapons program as attested by the US 2011 NIE, if you know what that is.
You are the insane paranoid Schizophrenic. You need help .
a stupid and racist film and unscientific. do Want to see a movie one day isranium named ? secondo iran did not have Standing described in this film. Finally, Iran is a more stable than Israel or Korea.
You are another paranoid who doesn't know what he is talking about. Iran is not wasting any time or money on useless nuclear weapons. What would they do with them, commit suicide? The US 2011 NIE confirms it. So, please just relax.
I hope obama is gone by the time iran nukes Israel. When iran finally does nuke them they [iran] will be removed from the earth. Hopefuly irans nukes are as weak as the ones north korea has.