It’s been almost a month since Osama Bin Laden was killed, and Al-Qaeda still has not officially named his successor. There are contradictory reports about whether his second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri or a top operational commander, Saif al-Adel, have taken the helm. Whatever the case may be, Saif al-Adel’s influence will increase and his ties to Iran and criticism of his colleagues could lead to significant changes in Al-Qaeda’s strategy.

There are unconfirmed reports that Saif al-Adel has been named the interim head of Al-Qaeda. He is respected in the terrorist group as a former member of the Egyptian special forces who has been tied to various plots, including the 1998 embassy bombings and the 2010 cargo plane bomb plot. One expert describes him as “the most ruthless leader in Al-Qaeda.”

If the report is true, the fact that Saif al-Adel’s position is temporary indicates the group’s leadership is unable to communicate. This may also mean the leadership is concerned about al-Zawahiri’s status. The Pakistanis have announced that they arrested the Al-Qaeda commander who served as the courier between al-Zawahiri and Bin Laden in Karachi. Intelligence obtained from Bin Laden’s compound has also given the U.S. a better idea of where al-Zawahiri may be located. The choosing of Saif al-Adel over al-Zawahiri would also prove that there is apprehension towards al-Zawahiri within Al-Qaeda’s ranks.

The source of the original report was Noman Benotman, a former Libyan Islamist who is now part of a counter-radicalization group in the U.K. called the Quilliam Foundation. He says that he is in contact with senior members of Al-Qaeda. A Pakistani newspaper has also reported Saif al-Adel’s appointment as Bin Laden’s successor. It is said that Saif al-Adel will oversee day-to-day operations and al-Zawahiri will handle the group’s international relations, but not everyone is buying the story.

Terrorism expert Jere Van Dyk doubts the story, saying it is unlikely that anyone based in the West would be able to retrieve such information from inside Al-Qaeda’s inner circle. One of his sources that used to be close to Bin Laden also questioned the report. The rumor was initially posted on the jihadist Internet forum, Shumoukh al-Islam. The posting was deleted by the administrators because they believed only Al-Qaeda’s official outlets can be relied upon for such announcements.

Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda in Iraq has publicly pledged allegiance to al-Zawahiri. A Dutch newspaper, De Telegraaf, says that its staff reviewed Dutch intelligence documents that say Al-Qaeda held a meeting on May 9 in Kuram, Pakistan. According to the files, al-Zawahiri suggested that Saad Bin Laden replace his father, but he had no interest. Al-Zawahiri then was officially given the top spot. NATO was told about the meeting by local informants the day after it was held.

There are reasons to question this report, as well. It is unclear how these informants supposedly gained access to the leadership’s private discussions. In July 2009, U.S. officials said they were “80 to 85 percent” sure that Saad Bin Laden had been killed in a drone strike after leaving Iran. Terrorist commanders denied it, but no proof that he is alive has come about since. An associate of Osama Bin Laden also said in 2008 that Hamza was the son that the terror leader wanted to follow in his footsteps.

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