Crowds of protesters are celebrating in the streets of Sanaa following President Saleh’s departure to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment after three rockets struck his palace. Their cheers may be premature, as he has given no indication that he will give up his fight to stay in power. The momentum does seem to be on the side of the opposition, but serious concerns linger about what a post-Saleh Yemen will look like.
Fierce fighting broke out in Yemen after President Saleh backed out of a deal to leave office at the last minute for the third time. The violence ultimately resulted in the firing of three rockets at the presidential palace, killing 11 people. Saleh suffered serious enough injuries that he had to go to Riyadh for surgery. The prime minister, two deputy prime ministers and the speakers of both chambers in parliament also had to go to Saudi Arabia. Saleh has blamed tribesmen loyal to Sheikh Sadiq Ahmar for the attack.
The opposition is enthused with Saleh’s departure. Mohammed Qahtan, the political director of Islah, the Islamist party, said, “We see this as the beginning of the end of this tyrannical and corrupt regime.” However, the vice president says Saleh will return “in a few days.” His return would be met with mass protests, and these protests will result in violent suppression. This would probably result in an end to the ceasefire that was recently agreed upon. Civil war will become more likely than ever.
Saleh’s Republican Guards and special forces, which are led by his son, amount to about 50-60,000 soldiers. Sheikh Ahmar leads the powerful Hashid tribe, and has popular support on his side. The opposition also has General Ali Mohsen, the country’s most powerful general, on its side after he defected in response to attacks on protesters. He was called the “second most powerful man in Yemen” in a U.S. diplomatic cable.
General Mohsen leads the 1st Armored Division, and oversees 40,000 men. He controls the western portion of Sanaa, and he hasn’t ordered his forces to try to forcefully push Saleh out of power yet. About half of the country’s generals have followed his lead in abandoning the regime. It is unlikely that Saleh could win a civil war if the opposition is willing to fully fight one, but he has enough forces to try to fight to a bloody standstill. A key question moving forward is how much bloodshed his own Republican Guards are willing to cause to preserve his power.
The problem facing the West is that Saleh will probably be replaced by Islamists, and it will be very difficult to keep the country united under one authority. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the north have fought both Saleh and the tribes opposed to them as they fight for autonomy or even independence. There is a secessionist movement in the south, and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has 300 to 500 fighters in Abyan, Shabwan and Marib Provinces that are trying to expand their base. Anwar al-Awlaki is a member of a powerful and well-armed tribe.
The problem facing the West is that Saleh will probably be replaced by Islamists,
As opposed to what? Meanwhile, the last time I checked an Islamist was an academic who specialized in studying Islam. Hence, if people who study Islam take over Yemen, then that shouldn’t be so bad, and if Muslims take over and the country breaks up, well that what’s wrong with that and why should we be concerned? Personally, I could care less.
As for as AQ in the Arabian Peninsular™ goes, the only reason they may be a threat to the national security of the USA is because we have millions of Muslim immigrants that are really stealth jihadists living in the country. If we didn’t have this 5th column of stealth jihadists living in the country, there wouldn’t be a damn thing they could do to attack us on our homeland. Indeed, the only reason 9/11 was possible was because of that 5th column of Muslim stealth jihadist already living in America.
It’s not hard folks, if we won’t to protect the homeland from Islamic terrorist attacks, then ban and reverse Muslim immigration and seal the borders ASAP. It would certainly be a hell of a lot cheaper for us in the long run and we could get rid of the Patriot Act and all of those stupid, idiotic, and inconvenient security measures at airports and federal buildings.
Moreover, when did the federal government ever ask the American public’s permission to see if we were okay with making all these personal sacrifices just to accommodate Muslim stealth jihadists with all their excess baggage, and that other than jihad, Islamic supremacism, and backwardness, have exactly nothing whatsoever to contribute to America? Indeed, we need Muslim stealth jihadists like we need the plague.
i did say this would happen.