The Arab Spring is about to add another dictator to its tally: Yemeni President Saleh. He is still being treated in Saudi Arabia for wounds from a dramatic assassination attempt, and officials say it will be “months” before doctors release him. It is increasingly unlikely he’ll come back to his home country, and if he does, civil war may erupt. This regime change is hardly being talked about, but it is one that Islamists are eagerly awaiting.
The Yemeni Vice President says he has no idea when Saleh will be released, and other officials are saying it will be months before he comes back. A Saudi official says that Saleh definitely will not return, but it still needs to be worked out where he will go into exile. If Saleh tries to return, he will meet a massive crowd of protesters and resistance from the U.S. and the Gulf Cooperation Council. At least half of his generals have defected, and over 100 members of his Republican Guard recently quit. The most powerful tribe and General Ali Mohsen, considered the second most powerful man in the country as the head of the 1st Armored Division, have also turned against him. It is hard to see how Saleh stays in power, raising the question of what comes next.
Al-Qaeda and related terrorist groups in Yemen are prospering. Anwar al-Awlaki is a member of a feared tribe, and Al-Qaeda is advancing. They have just seized parts of Houta in Lahj Province, and previously captured Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan Province. The terrorist group’s gains have prompted General Mohsen to ask for foreign intervention to end the crisis. The Saleh regime blames the revolution for Al-Qaeda’s success, while the opposition claims that the government is permitting the terrorist threat to grow to justify its rule. The opposition is adamant that it would be a better partner in fighting Al-Qaeda, but the ideology of the opposition brings its own problems.
Maybe this is a good thing. They will unite all the arab states and have one governing body. Then we can stop pussy footing around with these numbnuts and declare war and finish this thing. It will be Al kada and MB running the show, instead of a dictator who plays both sides.
We should do like we have done in Cuba. Provide for a 99 year lease of property. Let the rest of the country revert back to living like sand nomads and cave dwellers from the 7th century. We don't need to provide aid to them and stipulate aid only goes to Western Style Democracies, period. They either come our way or not. No wasting of our resources all while protecting our long term interests.
Hi Stephen,
I am sorry to disagree with you and for the following reasons:
1. These people have and/or are supported by oil money…Castro had no oil, only cigars.
2. These people are being ruled by dictators and will again be ruled by dictators except they are called Imams or Ayatollas.
3. The Qur'an says it is OK to lie to infidels and to steal from them…we are INFIDELS…and it is OK to murder us as well. Do you really think they will adhere to contractual obligations?
4. They are far away from the U.S.; WE MAY BE LOSING BASES NEAR THEM; and our supply lines will be quite stretched. Cuba is only 90 miles away.
5. I suspect they will benefit from a missile program one of our enemies will provide to them.
Additional aid will only drag this out for a very short time and the supplies/monies will be used by the bad guys. Hell, after what, 2 months or more, we can't even get Qadhafi out. I say "Let the chips fall where they may". I don't trust any of them in the M.E. except Israel.
I think you missed my point. My intent was as we have NOTHING to do with Cuba except occupy Gitmo because we have a lease with them. We should do the same with Yemen. Pay for a lease and let the rest of the place rot. I said nothing about providing aid, on the contrary. Only Western Style Democarcies should EVER get aid from us. Please re-read what I wrote.
This only goes to show that this administration is in its own little world when it comes to foreign policy. They immediately embraced these uprisings, without bothering to find out who these movements were made up of. In the 20th century there were two dominant strains of political thought in the Arab world. There was nationalism, and Islamism. Nationalism won out in the aftermath of colonialism, now its the Islamists turn. And we've helped them. We abandoned President Mubarak and now the Muslim Brotherhood is certain to take over. While we shouldn't have any love for Qaddafi we shouldn't have recognized the rebel movement, we simply don't know enough about them.
President Saleh, by Arab standards, is fairly moderate, and more importantly, he's an American ally. We will not be able to say that when Al-Qaeda, which is very strong in that country, takes over. This movement would have not had any hope of success without American help, and it only shows how incompetent this administration is that they would give it to them.
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If people do nothing it will happen.