Pat Caddell: And what Ann Coulter said yesterday about what Obama’s strategy will be with–he’ll deal with Iran if he needs it for re-election, and if you knew Tom [Donnell], his national security adviser, I can guarantee you there’s nothing they won’t do. But this is really important, because Republicans in Congress in the stupid party, as opposed to the corrupt party, though it’s hard to tell them apart sometimes–they will not take this issue on. This President has totally failed. The most amazing thing about those numbers are that women are higher than men. Even though they are twelve points more Democratic in our poll, 10 points more pro-Obama, they actually outnumber men, and a higher percentage saying we should take action. It’s what we saw, and we’ll see some more in the mosque thing. The elements that aim at the very constituency of the Democratic Party, and yes the economy will be biggest issue. But this maybe could be the most decisive. And yet Republicans refuse to engage in foreign policy because they keep saying Obama’s going to do well on it. This is the example that it’s not.
John McLaughlin: Regarding China, do you think that America can rely on China as a strong economic partner who wants the United States to be safe and secure, or do you think China is actively trying to undermine the United States to advance its own economic and national interests? And these–it’s 71% undermine, none of them were Georgetown basketball players. This group is not the Knights of Columbus. Americans have them in focus. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Muslim Brotherhood? 10% favorable, 44 unfavorable. That is amazing. When you ask most Americans, and if I asked them–one of my favorite questions is how many people here know who the prime minister of Canada is? Oh, good. You guys are definitely not normal. But the average American doesn’t. But you look at this 44%–4 to 1 unfavorable. They are really worried about this.
Sharia law. I’ve heard your speakers last night and yesterday were talking about sharia law as a code of conduct for religious law of Islam. Do you approve or disapprove of U.S. courts applying Islamic sharia law when deciding cases in marriage in federal and state courts? 6% approve. I’ll say–I’ll share the names with David later.
76% disapprove. That is a big number.
Pat Caddell: Someone might want to tell Governor Christie about that number.
John McLaughlin: Again, here’s another big number when you look at the American public, how far ahead they are of leaders. How concerned are you about Islamic terrorism by American-born Muslims? 86% concerned, 45 very concerned. And this is one of my other clients, one of those members that Paul mentioned–Congressman Pete King. He liked the way we asked this question. Regarding the Congressional hearings into the radicalization of Muslims in the United States, they need to continue because they’re providing information which is valuable and important to stop terrorism in the United States. 63% of all voters agreed with that. Only 20% said they should stop. The reason we asked this? In Washington they were telling Pete to stop the hearings. The Republicans were telling them they were counter-productive and a waste of tax money.–63 to 20, the Americans say go ahead. Keep doing it.
Pat Caddell: There are elements, as you know, and you’ve heard here, in the Republican Party, and the last question I’ll also comment on–but, who go around saying we cannot be Islamophobic. When the country, including many liberal women, particularly, look at what’s going on and are terrified that they have insidiously made the case and told Republicans whether it’s Ground Zero mosque or Muslims or whatever–you saw the numbers on sharia–God forbid that this should be raised in a country where people are so far ahead of the politicians. And you wonder why you lose elections.
John McLaughlin: And for those who still agree or disagree, members of the U.S. media and political elites are so concerned with being politically correct, they’re downplaying and not paying enough attention to the threats by American security by Islamic terrorists–69% agree, 42 strongly agree. Only 20% disagree. So people think the media and the elites are downplaying the 7 out of 10. And Pat, we asked them if they are angry or upset when they learned how the first-year Muslim teacher in Chicago sued to be allowed to go on a pilgrimage, when the school board refused, since they would never give the time off to any other teacher, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder intervened to take up a case which will involve spending millions of dollars.
Pat Caddell: Didn’t even have guns. And by the way, they settled. They forced the school board to settle. And they have now a special standard for Muslim teachers as opposed to every other teacher. And I didn’t hear a single Republican or anyone speak out against this, and to John’s point on Holder. Was anybody alive long enough back where I come from in 1968 when Richard Nixon, every campaign stop, said my first act will be to fire Ramsay Clark? I’ve yet to hear a Republican presidential candidate say that about the most dangerous Attorney General of my lifetime. And that includes even some really crooked ones.
John McLaughlin: There it is. Romney has the wrong pollsters. You got it. He should have a Democrat.
Anyway, now I’m going to read you another story. Last year an American cartoonist named Molly Norris, from Seattle, came up with an idea to satirize radical Islamic terrorists with a draw-Mohammed contest. Molly Norris received numerous death threats from known terrorists, including the current head of al Qaeda. Although she is an American citizen, living in the United States, the FBI came to Molly Norris and told her that the threat against her was real, and that they would not protect her, and she needed to change her identity, give up her job, and go into hiding, which she did. What’s your reaction to this story? 80% were angry and upset.
Pat Caddell: And this is my favorite story of all, because I was arguing in 2010 in the Washington Senate race, which was decided by a very tiny margin, and where women in Seattle voted for the Democrat, [Heddy] Murray, who had after we had 9/11, said we can’t forget all the wonderful things Osama bin Laden did for humanitarian causes. Dino Rossi–his campaign consultant–his Republican establishment consultants–they had this issue that could have taken to women in that state. And I guarantee you that would have decided that election. No Republican would speak on this issue, and his campaign specifically said, we don’t feel race–that this is not the kind of issue we should be talking about. That’s why you don’t have more seats in the United States Senate, too.
Moderator: I agree with Pat. If Herman Cain is our black swan, Pat Caddell is the Democratic Party’s black sheep. But only because he speaks truth to sometimes reluctant ears. Pat is a Democrat who embraces capitalism. This puts him at odds with most of the current leaders of his party. But Pat’s also an original thinker who has applied his talents to film and television. He’s written for feature films such as Air Force One, and wrote and produced the hit television series The West Wing. But as we Republicans like to point out, the only thing that would have made The West Wing’s Democratic presidency more authentic would have been the presence of David Gergen down the hall from the Oval Office. I reserve for him my highest praise for any ideological opponent. Pat Caddell is an honest liberal. Ladies and gentlemen, Pat Caddell.
Pat Caddell: And John is invited, because we were kind of merging these things to pipe in like I did with the slides we did, because we’ve both been covering. You saw his numbers on the generic stuff. But let me just first of all say, I missed the dinner with Dick Morris last night. I didn’t realize he was speaking. I took my family out to dinner, but I guarantee you, I don’t know what he said, but I’m willing to take all bets that every one prediction he made will come out wrong. So if I had done that in 2010, actually, I’m still actually waiting on Condi Rice and Hillary Clinton to figure out which of them is going to be the best. But look, I’m still a Democrat, and Monday the White House will freak because Doug Schoen and I–who’s another friend of mine–John’s my Republican pollster friend, and Doug is my Democratic pollster friend, and we were going to have one of our columns, which is running Monday, which is basically called the Hillary moment, which argues we told you a year ago to read, because you’d tear the country up if you ran for re-election, and you didn’t listen to us, now we’re telling you to step aside and let the one person that can win. You don’t have to worry. That won’t happen. But nonetheless, it still makes the case that the only way this man can win is to tear the country apart at a time of crisis, and he was willing to do that. And that is one of the principal arguments that you can make against him.
And by the way, let me just say this. You are well on your way to next year, coming here to celebrate Obama’s victory, because your party is so stupid. It is beyond belief. My party may be corrupt. So is yours. We’re just more corrupt. And we’re sometimes stupid, but not that stupid. You saw those numbers that John just put up, showing Obama closing from August. You know why? Because there is no narrative against him. There is no set of cases or challenges to him and to the Democrats since August, since the Republicans became paralyzed in Congress, Democrats have been allowed to run rampant. The election would be decided–let me tell you this. We have a country that is absolutely ready to blow. And I just want to tell you, our discussion of politics is normal and my feeling about Mitt Romney, which is–you know, he may look good on paper, I don’t know. But the problem is, we have a moment and no one’s standing up for the moment, and that moment is this. When you have, on the question that I helped word I had suggested and I’ve done some surveys on, that says the Declaration of Independence says the government receives their authority with the consent of the people. Does the federal government today have the consent of the people? And 24 say yes and 71 say no. It is what I describe as a prove-evolutionary moment. You know, 2 to 1, for the first time in history, not only a majority–the first time I’ve ever seen this question began in the 1950s with the University of Michigan, on alienation–people like me don’t have really much say about how the government works. Even at the worst of Watergate and Vietnam in the end of the 1970s, that question was only an even question. Today it’s 65-35.
And my favorite is the question about–that goes to the point that Erick made. It said this. The banks, Wall Street, the unions, and political special interests have rigged the rules of the game and they are looting the American Treasury at the expense of every single man, woman and child in America. And very few of them are punished or gone to jail, and they are destroying the moral foundation of America. 83% of Americans from left to right agree with that. There is a revolution brewing in this country, and the political class does not understand it. And no candidate seems to be willing to speak to it. But I will tell you, it is out there and it is bubbling, and right after they screw up–the supercommittee, one of the worst ideas in the history of mankind–I think you’re going to see even more activity. But the Republicans–and this is why I have to disagree–dissent a little bit–on issues like, you know the first thing Republicans want to do is run out and announce that they would cut Medicare, and the Democrats, well, thank you, thank you so much. God, we could never have thought of that ourselves. And you know, and these things– what do they do? And Erick Erickson is one who pointed it out in his newsletter. No one else has spoken about it. I do it every time I get a chance–which is on the issue of healthcare. The issue that elected the Republican Party. But the leadership of the Republicans in Congress abandoned right after Day One when they went through the perfunctory motion of repealing Obamacare and then don’t touch it anymore. On the funding, and everything else, they have walked away from that issue. They continue to walk away from it.
And here’s the interesting thing. Those of you who watched Ohio, which was quite different from Wisconsin, by the way–I’ll make a comment on that in a second–but the difference in these is that Governor Kasich has lost 61-39 at the same time a question about not allowing Ohio to enforce a mandate passed 66 to 34. Half the union voters voted for it. We had a question Ari asked about the President that said, and this is the toughest question I think I may have ever written–our healthcare system isn’t perfect, but it’s still the best in the world. President Obama’s healthcare bill makes it just another gigantic government program that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and not improve the healthcare our families get. President Obama must be defeated so we can repeal the healthcare law before it’s too late. 59% of people agreed with that, 40% strongly. And Republicans have walked away from this issue. These presidential candidates get perfunctory–and of course, we do have the candidate of the mandates, Mitt Romney, you remember the question I asked Ann Coulter. It’s just amazing to me. Instead, they’ve bailed on that issue, they’re bailing on the spending issue. Nobody’s challenged the President in a narrative, in terms of what his jobs program is, or having a positive jobs program.
I have to tell you right now there’s a pretty good chance that despite all the economic numbers as you saw in John’s question, he will win because he will frame this as a choice and not a referendum. It’s a box, just ask the question. This is where the election should be. But whether Republicans can win with definition is unclear, and that was in Europe, government leadership sometimes faces a confidence vote by–let’s imagine for a moment, United States law, if you could cast a similar type of vote, would you give the current White House a vote of confidence or a vote of no confidence? 40% a vote of confidence, 56% no confidence.
That is the question if you could have it as a referendum. However, this failure–and right now, and I want to say something and that this is very important to me, and then I won’t say any more. I came here a year ago, and it was here at this conference that it dawned on me that there had to be a narrative against Barack Obama. And it had to be run in 2011 and early 2012–that the election would be defined long before Karl Rove and all of his people come up with all the hundreds of millions of dollars they plan to spend in the fall. This election would be defined–decided by a narrative. And it would be decided among those ten million voters, independents and soft Democrats who we used to call Reagan Democrats, some of them–even beyond that, you saw (inaudible) policy. And that there were ways to get to Obama. You had to think like these people and speak to them in their language, and from their mindset.
I can tell you because there are rumors I had a little bit to do with it in Wisconsin–that’s what happened. John, in the New York 9th, we will hear from Congressman Turner–they turned a Democratic seat that was unwinnable into a real Republican victory by appealing to those voters and speaking to them in their own language. Meanwhile, the Republican Party went up to the 26th District and elected–in a seat where if this were on the ballot named Republican, they would win and managed to lose overwhelmingly on the issue of Paul Ryan’s wonderful idea of–we just can’t wait to show people we’re going to kill Medicare, which is what they think about us to begin with.
In Ohio, among some of the groups that take all the money from their donors, they dominated the discussion. They were going to make the American people–tell the people of Ohio just how good this stuff was for them, rather than do what Scott Walker did, which is turn the tables in a much tougher state, to make the case in language and values that those Democrats and independents who had just elected Scott Walker and a Republican legislature, to woo those people back. No, no, they have to go and play ideology. It’s better–more important to feel good and make your governors feel better.
I even hear–some of you met my grandchildren last night, as have seen them before. The only reason I came back to politics, because I know this election–this isn’t just the most important election. Let me just put it–tell you flat out. There will be–the America we know will be dead if Barack Obama is re-elected.
Now I want to tell you–hold your applause, because you’re not serious about it. I am serious. I put my rear end on the line on this. I want to tell you something. This crowd–I know these people. The issue isn’t what he’s done. Can you imagine what he’s going to do when he doesn’t face re-election? When we asked Jewish voters, John and I, on a poll two and half, three to one Democratic, how concerned they were of what Obama would do to Israel, given what he’s done already, when he doesn’t have to face re-election, 67% said they were concerned. Half of Obama’s own Democratic Jewish voters believe that. The things that they are going to do, just like the New York Times on Friday the headline they had about the re-election, about the EPA regulations, and he told the head of EPA don’t worry, we’ll deal with that again in 2013. Well, he’s already proved that he’s going to run the country that way, by edict. He doesn’t care what happens in the Congress. He is going to achieve what he wants to do, and the country that I grew up in–and I’m not–I am not a Republican, God forbid I would join a party that dumb. But I’m an American first, and I’ve thought for some time now, because I worry about the question that I keep asking myself, what am I going to say to those grandchildren of mine twenty years from now, when they ask, how did you let all this happen, Dada?
Now I want to tell you some of the difference between the way the left–just hold on, I know I’m overrun, but I’m going to just finish this, because this may be the last time you ever hear from me. But I’m serious. Because I am tired of this. I even went out for a year. And was here. There was another person who really got this, and helped me, Steve Handler and some others, trying to develop research we developed. I have a program where I knew we could defeat Obama by taking his voters away from him at the soft underbelly. Not just preach to them wonderful conservative principles, but to make them understand what a fraud this guy is, slowly, and in the process it gets to the point where he has been a bad President.
And I want to tell you some of the difference of trying to go and track–and I know that people in this room don’t have the kind of money. But I just love the difference between the left, George Soros, Peter Baker and others–you know what the difference between them and your big donors? They really mean to do what they say, and they put their money where their mouth is. Your people want buildings with their names on it, and they want this, and they want to give their children–what the question is that Handley said, in New York this week to several people, which is haunting me, which is–what–if you give your children a lot of money, and you leave a lot of things, what does it matter if you give them a dead country?
This election matters more than everything. And I want to tell you, my frustration is such, it really helps to have somebody that knows somebody to help you figure out how to beat them. But you know, when Arianna Huffington or David Brock, you know, abandon you, you know, come over, the left embraces them. They give them sinecures. They do all kinds of things. They embrace them and support them and elevate them. You know what your side does? Anybody of my side who raises questions, you treat them like they were an alien from Mars carrying typhoid.
And I going to tell you the difference is, the day’s going to come, and I don’t say this because you people are wonderful. But I am really, really telling you, I’ve reached the end of this process, because time is running out. This election will be won by May, or it will be lost. And right now, it would be lost, because you’re giving him a clear field. And the people who could make a difference won’t. And then they’re going to bitch and moan and cry about it afterwards .
But let me tell you something. This will tell you something about the Obama people. You know who they’re coming for? They’re coming for you, and they’re coming for those people. And the day they start real redistribution in this country–and you’re all whining and stuff–you remember what I said today about the people who won’t stand up. And where your big donors, who won’t stand up to win, and this is–and that’s why I said this may be my last talk–but I feel so strongly and I feel so frustrated, and I’ll tell you what. We did research and stuff. We have ways this guy could be–peeling him apart is so easy. But it will never be done with a Republican voice. It will never be done by conservatives preaching ideology. And I think the value of ideas is critical. Don’t misunderstand me. But right now, I’m not saying electing Romney, for God’s sakes, or anyone else will make a big difference yet. It’s a long way to get this country back. But this election determines whether that opportunity will even exist. And right now, we’re losing that opportunity.
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