Brooklyn’s 48th District is a “SuperJewish” district crafted by Democratic Party gerrymanderers to limit the influence of Brooklyn’s Orthodox Jewish population. The latest redistricting used a combination of two gerrymandering tactics to accomplish this goal. Orthodox Jewish communities were either broken up into gerrymandered districts aimed at other races, e.g. a large number of Orthodox Jews are stuck in Anti-Israel Black Congresswoman Yvette Clark’s district. Or if that’s not feasible, they’re locked up into one SuperJewish district.
The 48th encompasses much of Boro Park and a piece of Flatbush, a neighborhood known more officially as Midwood. It isn’t limited to only Orthodox Jews. There is a sizable Bangladeshi Muslim community in the middle of it and still plenty of old school Brooklynites. Still the 48th is about as Jewish as a district gets. And the results aren’t good news for the future of the Democratic Jewish vote.
— Jacob Kornbluh (@jacobkornbluh) December 29, 2012
As I documented previously, the Orthodox Jewish vote swung to Romney in 2012 and to McCain in 2008. New York Orthodox districts are unique in New York City where they are islands of conservatism in an ocean of liberalism.
This trend has been underway now. Looking at coverage of the 45th and 48th (the exact boundaries and composition of these districts have changed over time) from the 2004 election, a major shift was underway.
The 45th Assembly district, comprising Flatbush and Brighton Beach in Brooklyn, cast 16,120 votes for Mr. Bush and 12,633 for Senator Kerry, according to the city’s Board of Elections. In 2000, then-Governor Bush got just 8,615 votes out of more than 30,000.
The 48th Assembly district, comprising heavily Orthodox Boro Park, cast 18,036 votes for Mr. Bush versus 7,847 for Senator Kerry. In 2000, Vice President Gore took the district, 15,616 to 10,001.
A senior Democratic strategist, based at Los Angeles who spoke to The New York Sun on condition of anonymity, said his research into the electoral precincts of Beverly Hills, with a Jewish population of nearly 40%, indicated that Mr. Bush got 42% of the vote, up from 20% in 2000. At the adjoining areas of Beverlywood and Pico/Robertson, which also have substantial Jewish populations and are considered liberal strongholds, Mr. Bush’s backing likewise roughly doubled, to nearly one-third. In the San Fernando Valley, the community of Encino, where approximately 26% of registered voters are Jewish, gave 38% of the vote to Mr. Bush, after giving him just 26% in 2000.
Pico/Robertson has a sizable Orthodox Jewish population, particularly of Middle Eastern Jews who trend conservative.
How bad have things gotten? Bad enough that Schumer only very narrowly won the 48th.
In the RJC’s survey of selected local races, we find that Long Island Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy beat her Republican opponent by about two to one amongst Jewish voters, but lost the Orthodox vote by a margin of 15% to 64% (most of the others did not admit to a preference). According to Goldberg, similar ratios emerged in races surveyed in Illinois, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.
As noted, the 48th AD backed Paladino, DioGuardi, Wilson, Donovan and the Republican candidate for Civil Court. Chuck Schumer took his Senate race by a not too impressive 53.36% to 45.89%.
Yvette Clarke lost the 45th to a placeholder Republican by a vote of 38.50% to 61.04%. In the 48th, Clarke took 32.30% to the Republican’s 67.30%.
In Jerry Nadler’s race, the Republican, Susan Kone, was slightly better than a placeholder, but not that much more. Yet Nadler lost his predominately Sephardic portion of the 45th 44.65% to 55.30%. And, in the 48th, Nadler was beaten 39.42% to 60.56%.
In the 48th, Turner beat Weiner 50.90% to 49.10% and in the 45th, he won 50.15% to 49.81%.
This is jaw dropping.
Weiner is a Citywide figure who these voters once backed for Mayor. Unlike Nadler, who is at the right end of left Zionism, Weiner’s buff card could accurately read “Likud.” If there was ever a member of Congress to have taken the necessary steps to insulate himself from an Orthodox revolt, it was Tony Weiner
So what’s going on here?
Israel is certainly an issue, but so is social conservatism in general. Democrats are losing badly on foreign policy and while their embrace of J Street is bringing in cash from liberal billionaires like Nazi collaborator George Soros, it’s losing them Jewish votes in working class neighborhoods. Ditto for the embrace of gay marriage, a cause backed by a select number of liberal millionaires and billionaires that is alienating the Jewish religious vote, not only for moral reasons but because of the threat that religious Jewish communities will be forced to choose between keeping their faith and breaking the law.
The Democratic Party’s radical swing to the left hasn’t alienated religious Black and Hispanic voters, but it has alienated religious Jewish voters for good.