Iranian Officers Reveal Disaffection in their Military

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Iranian officers in both the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the regular army, once stalwart supporters of the Islamic Republic, have now expressed their deep unhappiness with the regime. More about their disaffection can be found here: “Former IRGC officers speak out against Islamic regime in rare interview with Israeli media,” Jerusalem Post, March 16, 2025:

Several Iranian officers believe that Hamas and Hezbollah will not recover in strength and have also spoken out against the Islamic Republic regime in a rare interview with the N12 news site published on Saturday.

Javad, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operative, spoke publicly for the first time to Israeli media, revealing his past involvement in suppressing protests, his recruitment into the extremist Basij militia, and shared details of the Islamic Republic’s reaction to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last July.

“It was an incredibly precise intelligence operation,” he said. “Mossad knew exactly where he was staying, down to the room number. It showed just how deeply Israeli intelligence had penetrated the IRGC.

“The Revolutionary Guards were in complete shock,” he added. “They didn’t even issue a statement. Israeli intelligence is highly effective, though their ground operations still have weaknesses, according to IRGC personnel.”

The assassination of Haniyeh was just the beginning. Months later, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was also eliminated. But the biggest blow came when Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria collapsed, a development Javad described as devastating for Tehran.

One of the main reasons for Assad’s regime collapsing was that Hezbollah, having been battered by the IDF, was unable to come to his aid. when the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began advancing from Idlib toward Damascus. This led to the Sunni jihadists taking control, unopposed, of Syria, turning the country from an ally of Iran to Iran’s mortal enemy, for Ahmad al-Sharaa and his supporters cannot forgive Iran, or Hezbollah, for propping up the Alawite dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad.

“The IRGC lost one of its strongest fronts in Syria,” he explained. “Now, Syria is acting in Israel’s interests against Hezbollah. That was a crushing defeat for Iran.”

He added: “Israel has been systematically targeting key figures. Even Nasrallah admitted Hezbollah had suffered a serious setback. The IRGC knows Hamas and Hezbollah may never fully recover, so they’re putting its hopes in advancing operations from Yemen.”…

The Houthis in Yemen are a slim reed for Iran to rely on. While the Houthis have launched more than 260 missiles and drones at Israel, almost all of them have either been intercepted, or fell short in the Red Sea, or landed harmlessly in open fields inside Israel. Several dozen Israelis have been injured. One missile managed to hit Tel Aviv in July 2024. The Houthis have had better luck striking, with drones and missiles, international shipping.

Iran’s armed forces are divided between the IRGC, which is loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and funds proxy militias, and the regular Iranian Army, which is gradually being weakened as resources are funneled elsewhere. Tensions between the two have escalated, particularly after Israeli airstrikes crippled Iran’s air defense systems.

Arash [“a retired lieutenant-colonel in the Iranian Air Force and special forces veteran”] claimed that some within the regular army are waiting for an opportunity to turn against the regime….

Ill-paid and poorly equipped, the soldiers of the regular army are increasingly unhappy with their treatment. They see the mounting corruption among the theocrats who run Iran, and compare the mullahs’ wealth with their own families’ increasing impoverishment. They also have been demoralized by the loss of Iran’s allies — Hezbollah, battered by the IDF, and Syria, that has been transformed from Iran’s ally under Assad to a mortal enemy under Ahmad al-Sharaa.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is better paid, better equipped, and has higher status than the soldiers in the regular army. Favored by the regime, the members of the IRGC are much more loyal to it, and should Iran be hit again by Israel with a devastating attack similar to that launched by the Jewish state on October 26, 2024, when the IAF destroyed Iran’s air defenses, its plant for manufacturing ballistic missile fuel, and its secret nuclear facility at Parchin, there might be an open revolt by the army against the regime, which the IRGC would attempt to crush.

The depth of the disaffection is clear. Javad and Arash both hoped that Israel would destroy the regime’s leaders, including “a strike on Khamenei’s residence,” and on the military pillar of the state, the IRGC, so that the people of Iran, led by the regular army, will then be able to “rise up and overthrow” the regime that so many Iranians despise. Both men insist that 95% of the people of Iran welcomed Israel’s attack on that country’s S-300 air defense systems.

“Israel doesn’t chant ‘Death to Iran.’ We were once allies. Now we hope Israel’s military strength can help the Iranian people reclaim their country.”…

Despite all the anti-Israel propaganda the Iranians have been fed since 1979, it appears from their testimony that the ordinary people of Iran do not harbor ill will toward the Jewish state, and many remember that “we were once allies.” According to these military informants, Javad and Arash, the people look to Israel to help them throw off the corrupt despots who rule over them, mainly by decimating the leadership, including the Supreme Leader, after which the army, made up of “ordinary Iranians,” hopes to seize military control from the IRGC.

Iran’s economy is cratering. More than 30% of Iranians now live below the poverty line, The more than fifty billion dollars that Iran invested in keeping Assad in power in Syria has now been lost. Assad has fled to Russia; his regime has collapsed. Billions of dollars more that were sent to Hezbollah have also gone down the drain. The regime is again enduring the devastating sanctions reimposed by Trump. There are more to come, including an attempt to greatly curtail sales of Iranian oil abroad, especially to China (which now takes 90% of Iran’s oil exports). If successful, those sanctions would deprive the country of about $53 billion in revenues, leaving it virtually penniless. Even the IRGC, the most loyal part of the Iranian military, if we are to believe the testimony of Javad, is now eager for regime change. All it will take is another attack by Israel on Iran that will be unable to mount a defense (its air defense systems were all destroyed on October 26), showing conclusively the regime’s weakness, for mass demonstrations to appear, the crowds demanding — and getting — the downfall of the mullahs.