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Major changes are taking place in Lebanon’s shaky political structure, amid considerable uncertainty about the future. New president Joseph Aoun and his appointed Prime Minister Nawaf Salam promise major change, but it’s premature to gauge how much that promise will be fulfilled in the long run.

Lebanon is governed by a sectarian power-sharing system. Under it, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the parliament a Shia Muslim. Its complex political system relies on agreements between many parties and sects, as well as their foreign backers. And Hizballah remains powerful and active in Lebanon’s parliament, which guarantees uncertainty. Despite the blow Hizballah has endured in its war with Israel, it still has “many thousands of fighters and commands the loyalty of most of the country’s Shiite Muslims.” But “the era of Hezbollah and Iran’s unshakable dominance in Lebanon appears to be over,” and it is reeling from the loss of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, as well as the support it received from Syria’s former President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria. Its patron Iran is likewise on the defensive.

The country now finds itself needing Western approval for survival, in the form of financial assistance and bailouts.

A deadlock in the Lebanese parliament between pro-and anti-Hizballah groups had stalled “a dozen previous attempts to elect a president, leaving the country largely rudderless in its efforts to secure an emergency bailout” from its financial ruin.

According to Lina Khatib of Britain’s Chatham House think tank, this was “the first time since the end of the Lebanese civil war (in 1990) that a Lebanese president is elected without prior approval by Iran and by the ousted Syrian regime.”

She also said that Hizballah’s acceptance of General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese military, as president on January 9, “underlines that it no longer dictates the political agenda.”

Aoun has already received congratulatory messages from Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Jordan.

On the downside:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also sent a congratulatory message to Aoun, expressing Palestine’s desire to strengthen “brotherly relations and cooperation” with Lebanon, its government and its people.

The prospect of close “brotherly” ties with the Palestinian Authority in its longtime zeal to kill Jews and annihilate Israel bodes ill for the future. So does the fact that Nawaf Salam is viciously anti-Israel. Salam, who is Sunni, was elected head of the International Court of Justice last year; he presided over South Africa’s case accusing Israel of genocide. Widely considered to be a moderate and reformist, he’s backed by many Arab countries, and France’s globalist president, Emmanuel Macron, enthusiastically welcomed him, stating that he was “recognized for his integrity and his skills.” Although Salam isn’t a puppet of Iran and its proxy Hizballah, he also does not support Israel’s right to defend itself from obliteration. He accuses Israel of genocide in its efforts to neutralize the abilities of Hamas, ignoring the fact that Hamas uses its people as human shields. An important factor in Salam’s election, however, was the fact that his appointment was “likely to lead to flow of funds from Western and oil-rich Arab nations to Lebanon to help in the reconstruction process.”

Yet the appointment of Salam as Lebanon’s new prime minister has angered Hizballah, which wanted incumbent Najib Mikati to remain in the post. Thus Salam’s appointment represents the diminishing of Hizballah’s influence, as well as a shift to a more orderly political system, which includes the filling of the long-vacant offices of president and vice president. As MP Georges Adwan of the Christian party the Lebanese Forces said, “the era of weapons is over.”

However, another kind of threat looms, one that is more sophisticated politically and which is poised to strengthen the red-green axis. Lebanon with the anti-Israel Salam as prime minister could help escalate a diplomatic gang-up on Israel. It also remains to be determined how Hizballah will proceed in the new situation; given its history, it will likely do all it can to stir political and civil strife. As Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute in Washington, warns regarding Hizballah: “Inside Lebanon, it remains a very heavily armed group, more powerful than any other in the country.”

The president and prime minister, meanwhile, have extremely limited constitutional powers and authority to disarm Hizballah. Lebanon’s 1989 Taif Agreement, which favored the Shia, ended the country’s 15-year civil war and redistributed the country’s executive political powers to the cabinet. “As the master of cabinet agendas, the prime minister had to draft them with the speaker of parliament.” The Shia speaker under the Taif agreement was granted “enhanced powers” and “extensive control.” In other words, the Lebanese political system was wired in favor of Hizballah.