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[SPECIAL JANUARY PROMOTION: Spend $50+ In The FPM Store And Receive A Free Copy Of “Final Battle” By David Horowitz.]
Nikki Haley just lost the New Hampshire primary by 11 percent.
She had earlier come in third in the recent Iowa caucuses behind Ron DeSantis.
But DeSantis, not she, dropped out of the race. He then endorsed front-runner Donald Trump.
By contrast, Haley confidently announced that at last there was a two-person, head-to-head race. So she confidently headed to New Hampshire.
Her subtext was that if she did not win the upcoming two-person primaries, she would come in “second” rather than “last.”
Her supporters outspent all the candidates in Iowa and would do so again in New Hampshire. Haley consolidated the Never-Trump voters, won Independents and cross-over Democrats, and garnered millions from the donor class exasperated at the thought of a third Trump candidacy.
Moreover, nearly half of those who voted in the Republican primary were not themselves Republicans. New Hampshire was the most Haley-friendly primary in the entire campaign season.
Yet after coming in last in the three-person Iowa race with 19 percent of the vote, she still lost by 11 points in a New England state more reflective of a traditional Romney or Bush voter than of a Trump supporter.
Trump has now won the first two primaries by large majorities. As he reminds us, no Republican in recent history has lost the nomination after winning Iowa and New Hampshire.
So what is Haley’s strategy ahead?
In the short term, she will cede to Trump the Nevada caucuses and focus on her home state of South Carolina.
But then what?
Ron DeSantis wisely got out of the race and endorsed Trump because he did not wish to lose in New Hampshire. And he correctly surmised that he will be a frontline candidate in 2028, with a now-supportive Trump.
By contrast, Haley, after losing Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, may lose her native state even more dramatically, despite her longed-for head-to-head race with Trump.
Will Haley thereby tarnish her long-term political viability?
Who knows? But party pressure will only increase for her to drop out, seek unity in the party, and consolidate finite Republican donor funds behind Trump.
In sum, Haley now has four choices.
First, she can exit, endorse Trump, promise to campaign for him with Independents and cross-over voters, and expect an offer of a cabinet position or ambassadorship as she prepares to run again in 2028.
Or second, Haley can campaign even harder. She can raise lots more Never-Trump money and mimic George H.W. Bush’s second-place, year-long candidacy of 1980.
Even when losing, Bush tempered his attacks on front-runner Ronald Reagan. Meanwhile, he proved himself an adroit campaigner, consolidating a coalition of anti-Reagan establishment Republicans and independents in the primaries.
The advantages of Bush’s hard campaigning and appeal to centrists finally impressed Reagan realists.
Bush himself won over a hesitant Reagan to the once unthinkable idea of putting the aristocratic blue blood on the ticket as a balance to the supposedly hard-right Reagan.
The ensuing Reagan-Bush ticket smashed the incumbent Jimmy Carter.
Eight years later, Bush himself was rewarded by being nominated without much opposition in the primaries, endorsed by President Reagan, and winning the presidency in 1988.
Haley might do the same, moderating her attacks on front-runner Trump as she plays the noble opponent for a few more primaries.
That way, she might angle for the Vice President nomination, promising to deliver millions of centrist voters.
Such service would also boost her profile in a final four-year Trump administration and position her well for 2028.
Or third, Haley can limp about for a few more primaries, haphazardly campaign, and slowly fizzle out. That rope-a-dope strategy would be to remain a “backup” candidate.
An inert Haley would serve as the only remaining Republican alternative to Trump—on the chance he might be convicted and jailed and thus either be unable to actively campaign or wounded as the first felon to run as a major party candidate.
Or fourth, Haley can go the full-bore, dead-ender route.
She would ratchet up her harsh attacks on Trump’s age and emulate the 2016 Never Trump nihilism.
Haley could not win. But she could hurt Trump in the manner that the Never Trump vote wounded Trump in 2016 and might even have helped defeat him in 2020.
Haley would win accolades from the media, be canonized (for a while) by Democrats and Never Trumpers as a brave maverick speaking truth to power—and essentially blow up her political career.
Choice one, the Ron DeSantis route, is the most logical. But Haley might well choose the riskier options two and three of staying in the race.
Option four would end her career, delight an ailing Biden campaign, and could give the country more of the 2021-24 madness rather than a return to what worked in 2017-20.
Nikki Haley should acknowledge the obvious—she’s not going to win.
She should stop helping Biden and get out of the race.
She should stop helping Biden and get her head outta her ass.
Nikki Haley’s behavior and decisions during this primary season indicates that she should leave, or be
drummed out of the Republican/Conservative party..
Her judgement is seriously flawed.
In power, her judgement would be a disaster for America and US citizens.
C’mon man you forgot the fifth option, she could loan my vote count machine.
I don’t know why vote fraud is an ignored topic. as the commenter above also points out. Haley can win if the machines are calibrated properly and the votes are counted that way……in the wee hours of the morning.
I think the left prefers someone else but she’s proven malleable and dishonest. .
She will stay in the race, betting that Pres. Trump will have something unfortunate happen to him soon.
Trump removed from the race still would not make Haley the default alternative. So far she’s won ZERO delegates, and alternative candidates have only “suspended” their campaigns. Barring a Trump endorsement of someone else, it would be an open field, with no advantage to Haley.
And I care what Nikki Haley does…..why?
We should care about what she’s doing becuz she seems to be a “plant” of the leftist commie Dems. What do they have up their sleeve for this presidential race God only knows but it won’t be fun! Keep watch!
Now Haley is quoted as supporting the outrageous $83 million judgment against Trump that was crafted out of thin air by New York. She’s on a search-and-destroy mission against Trump that will go as long as her elite backers from both parties feed her money. Whether she wins or loses any primary in the process is incidental.
Amazing how many so-called experienced politicians fail to realize they are serving as nothing more than useful idiots to Party bosses and the oligarchs who run this country.
Ah, but they hope to get or continue getting a piece of the action.
I don’t think it’s a big deal to stay and see how she does in her home state. If polls are correct and Trump wins South Carolina, she must bow out and unify the party to oust the most corrupt and incompetent President in history.
Nikki did OK as Trump brought her into the spotlight as UN ambassador giving her a national platform. Only she crapped all over the trust DJT put in her to turn against him thinking she could now garner all the female vote and the never Trump vote. Wrong. Her political career is toast.
Nikki Haley’s behavior and decisions during this primary season indicates that she should leave, or be drummed out of the Republican/Conservative party..
If she should gain high government office, she will make terrible damaging decisions for America, just like the Clintons, the Bushes, and of course Obama Rama Lama Ding Dong.
Why so many political and government leaders in America are now hell bent on harming America and US citizens is truly amazing.
I think it has something to do with what they think will benefit their own personal power and enrichment.
The care very little, or nothing, about America and US citizens.
Everyone has learned, or is learning, to use America and US citizens, for one’s own personal benefit.
Nothing else matters.
Nikki Haley’s behavior and decisions during this primary season indicates that she should leave, or be drummed out of the Republican/Conservative party..
If she should gain high government office, she will make terrible damaging decisions for America, just like the Clintons, the Bushes, and of course Obama Rama Lama Ding Dong.
Why so many political and government leaders in America are now hell bent on harming America and US citizens is truly amazing.
I think it has something to do with what they think will benefit their own personal power and enrichment.
The care very little, or nothing, about America and US citizens.
Everyone has learned, or is learning, to use America and US citizens, for one’s own personal benefit.
Nothing else now matters.
She ALREADY HAS dug her political grave. Thus us no ordinary election. It is not just about Trump, but also about 75 million of his supporters who are VERY ANGRY at their voices and rights having been BANNED AND CANCELLED – those 75 million who also got screwed in the so-called elections of 2020
.
Trump needs to appeal to the independents. Haley has shown that she can do this. He needs her.
Professor: Don’t lower yourself by political punditry. You have exposed yourself as a willfully blind and willfully ignorant Trump 4th year overlooker of his his being wrong on everything Covid, recklessly gumping 3.2 trillion in stimmy; and in 4 years running up a 7.5 trillion explosion of debt. He set us on the road to ruination. Biden has finished the job.