The Israel-America-Azerbaijan Strategic Alliance

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After three decades of bitter conflict in the Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan—including one major war, another of medium scale, and a targeted military operation—there may finally be progress toward peace between the two nations.

Recently, the special envoy of the Trump administration to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, visited Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. This American visit raised eyebrows among many in the Caucasus, prompting questions about the significance of the event. Almost simultaneously, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared their intentions for a better-shared future and a more positive horizon. The U.S. made no official statements on the matter, and reports from Baku merely confirmed the visit and the positive declarations.

A few days later, the Trump administration’s National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, shared a tweet on his Twitter account (or rather, on his X account) that could be interpreted as an American endorsement of mediation between the two nations. He wrote:

“Conflict in the South Caucasus must end. I spoke this week with Mr. Hikmet Hajiyev, the national security advisor for President Aliyev in Azerbaijan. We are pleased Azerbaijan and Armenia have taken a big step forward and agreed to a peace treaty. I told him we should finalize this peace deal now, release the prisoners, and work together to make the region more secure and prosperous. America’s Golden Age will bring peace and prosperity to the world, and we won’t stop working until that happens”.

Does this mean that a peace agreement or normalization between Armenia and Azerbaijan, under U.S. sponsorship, is imminent? The answer remains uncertain.

Alongside these historic and emotionally charged declarations, diplomatic maneuvers are unfolding that seem to contradict the reconciliation efforts between these long-feuding nations. While reports emerged about warming ties between Azerbaijan and Armenia, a trilateral alliance was forged between Israel, the United States, and Azerbaijan to collaborate on various joint projects. These are not mere discussions about theoretical or future initiatives. Israel is actively working to include Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords, while Israeli and Jewish organizations in the U.S. are leveraging their connections to push for the repeal of Section 907 of the American law, which currently restricts U.S. economic aid to Azerbaijan. The three nations are strengthening their ties and expanding their cooperation, seemingly with limitless potential for future collaboration.

Another recent development in Azerbaijan-Israel relations was marked by the visit of Mikayil Jabbarov to Israel, where he met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. The two leaders discussed the growing partnership between their countries and explored additional avenues for bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation. Subsequently, the Azerbaijani delegation also met with Israel’s Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Eli Cohen. The discussions largely revolved around Azerbaijan’s role in Israel’s energy security and the development of gas fields. Recently, the Azerbaijani energy company SOCAR signed a contract with Israel to join efforts in maximizing the potential of Israel’s offshore gas reserves. Furthermore, during Jabbarov’s visit, a formal ceremony was held to present SOCAR with gas exploration licenses for Israel’s “I” exploration area. These licenses enhance SOCAR’s international standing while simultaneously advancing Israel’s efforts to capitalize on its gas resources and future revenues.

Jabbarov also met with Israeli Minister of Economy Nir Barkat, where they discussed Israeli investments in Azerbaijan and prioritized areas for economic cooperation, including investment projects, industrial zone development, business ties, digital advancements, and other fields. Additionally, the Azerbaijani delegation held meetings with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar and Ze’ev Elkin, a minister in Israel’s Ministry of Finance and co-chair of the Azerbaijan-Israel intergovernmental commission.

Given the information presented, it appears that something peculiar is occurring within U.S. foreign policy regarding the Caucasus. Two seemingly contradictory decisions were made almost simultaneously, each shaping a different future for the region and involving different players. On one hand, the U.S. is fostering reconciliation between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, attempting to warm their relations. On the other, it is bolstering the pro-Western camp and working to integrate Azerbaijan into its fold. It remains unclear whether Azerbaijan’s growing image as a Western ally can coexist with the ongoing peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

While Armenia is a Christian nation, it remains aligned—directly or indirectly—with the anti-Western bloc due to its dependency on Russia and the influence of Iran. Until its 2020 war with Azerbaijan, Armenia was deeply entrenched in a military alliance with Russia. However, that war revealed that Moscow was not willing to go all out in assisting Yerevan. Consequently, Armenian leadership sought new patrons, though they have yet to significantly distance themselves from Putin’s Kremlin. Regarding Armenia’s ties with Iran, it is evident that Tehran’s grip is not a true alternative to the Russian support it had once expected. Iran operates in Armenia much as it did in Assad’s Syria—deploying agents for intelligence gathering and exerting undue political influence. This is hardly an ideal scenario for a nation seeking stability and security.

Azerbaijan, for its part, already poses a challenge to Iran due to its close ties with Israel—and now, increasingly, with the U.S. What will happen if Armenia also establishes warm and cooperative relations with Azerbaijan? At the same time, Azerbaijan remains closely aligned with both Washington and Jerusalem. How will Iran respond to such a development?

If we examine the trajectory of Trump’s foreign policy since his rise to power, it becomes evident that he seeks a world free of war and blood-soaked conflicts. His preference is for industrial peace and stability. This is apparent in the U.S. actions regarding Israel’s conflict with Hamas in Gaza, as well as in the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. It is, therefore, logical to assume a similar approach toward the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. What is less logical, however, is the simultaneous promotion of peace talks between Yerevan and Baku while also deepening the trilateral alliance between the U.S., Israel, and Azerbaijan.

At first glance, one might assume that the U.S. has leveraged the peace talks between the Caucasus nations as a distraction, allowing problematic actors in Armenia’s vicinity to lower their guard and refrain from sabotaging the burgeoning cooperation between Washington, Jerusalem, and Baku. One need not look far to recall what Iran’s axis did when Israel and Saudi Arabia were on the verge of normalizing ties in October 2023.

Conversely, part of the U.S. motivation for drawing Azerbaijan closer may be its role as a mediator between Washington and Moscow. If American foreign policy teaches us anything, it is that the U.S. is growing weary of investing in the interests of other nations—especially those under its protection. It is possible that the effort to bring Armenia and Azerbaijan closer together was stalled within the U.S. administration in favor of strengthening Azerbaijan as a future bridge to Russia. This would mean that Washington prioritized its own strategic interests over those of the people of the Caucasus.

On the other hand, no official details have yet emerged regarding the U.S. stance on the Armenia- Azerbaijan peace talks. Washington has remained silent on the rumors circulating in the region. The situation may be unfolding differently than we currently perceive.

What is certain, however, is that the future promises to be eventful—regardless of the direction in which the U.S. steers the region.

Rachel Avraham is the CEO of the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy and an Israel-based journalist. She is the author of “Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media.”